The Oil Drum: New York City

Permanent Move to www.nyc.theoildrum.com

2005-09-08T23:22:00.000-04:00

As I mentioned earlier, I have moved over to www.nyc.theoildrum.com from here forward. They have a scoop site which allows for greater connectivity and group participation. If you would like, you can sign-up over there and even submit your own articles.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Tri-State Commuters Adjusting to $3 Gas

2005-09-08T11:02:00.000-04:00

NOTE THAT THIS BLOG IS MOVING TO NYC.THEOILDRUM.COM PERMANENTLY STARTING FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 9TH. UNTIL THEN I WILL POST AT BOTH SITES.

There are already signs that New York City area residents are adapting their commutes to save money on fuel.

While we will have to wait until the end of the month to see just how many commuters have switched over to MetroNorth and Long Island Railroad trains or private bus lines, reports are flooding in that there are many newcomers on the trains over the last 2 weeks since Katrina sent gas over the $3/gallon mark.

According to a NY Times article, people in the Tri-State area are adjusting their commutes to consume less gas, including carpooling.

From MetroNorth: "Officials of the Metro-North Railroad and New Jersey Transit said this week that they believed more people were leaving their cars at home and riding trains and buses to and from work....the officials said their conductors had been noticing new faces and were more frequently fielding questions usually asked by newcomers."

From NJ Transit: "Officials of New Jersey Transit also believe that people have been making the switch to mass transit as the cost of driving has shot up this summer, said Dan Stessel, a spokesman for the transit agency. New Jersey Transit raised its fares by an average of 11.5 percent on July 1, an increase that would reduce ridership by 2 or 3 percent normally, he said. But so far, there has been no measurable decline in the number of passengers, he said."

From a new carpooler: I really enjoyed the freedom of my own car until I realized it was just strapping me," Ms. Reeves, 45, said in an interview this week. Her first response was to start splitting the driving on the 80-mile round trip with a co-worker. But now she is preparing to share the pain inflicted at the pump with a group of six colleagues in a van subsidized by federal and state programs, which she estimated would reduce their monthly cost of commuting to about $80 each."

Even if they don't see the big picture about peak oil, people can adapt their consumption patterns to a certain extent if they have the incentives. Hopefully gas prices will continue to steadily increase, driving more people into a more sustainable lifestyle before we reach the peak.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Impact of Higher Gas Prices

2005-09-06T23:57:00.000-04:00

From today's NY Times, it seems that even a city boasting the largest mass transit system in the nation is suffering under the effects of three dollar (or more) a gallon gasoline.
Many businesses are passing on the costs to their customers, like a messenger service that doubled it's rates from NJ to Manhattan. A friend told me last week that delivery of a rocking chair she was giving to a friend cost $35 more in the suburbs

Some interesting stats on how dependent NYC is on gas:
*Drivers in New York State may pay an extra $600 million a month in fuel costs, based on $3.25 a gallon for unleaded regular gas, according to an estimate by Senator Charles E. Schumer. If such prices persist for a year, he said, it will cost residents $7.2 billion - $1 billion in New York City alone.
*MTA fuels 5,000 buses everyday - estamated a $119m fuel bill for 2005 based on a price of $2.40/gallon
*Department of Education - with 6,100 buses carrying nearly 200,000 schoolchildren

Of course higher costs means either higher taxes or less service or trade-offs with other budget items. Or for heaven's sake, perhaps we could actually start finding ways of conserving fuel and lowering our gas bill through less consumption!

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Building a Sustainable NYC

2005-09-06T23:14:00.000-04:00

NOTE THAT THIS BLOG IS MOVING TO NYC.THEOILDRUM.COM PERMANENTLY STARTING FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 9TH. UNTIL THEN I WILL POST AT BOTH SITES.

Let me simply state that I am not one of those "head for the hills" type of people who thinks they can completely insulate themselves from the impact of peak oil by founding an eco-village or some type of intended living communities. Rather, I see the answer to peak oil not in each person becoming more independent from society, but rather from forming more local/regional levels of interdependency and self-sufficiency - local energy generation, local food production, local manufacturing bases, communities that are relatively self sufficient for the basics of life. Frankly, I don't see how we can escape this future if energy supplies become more scarce. Those communities that embrace this future path and invest now have a better chance of survival/adjustment than others. If you want to start making a difference in this, read further.

Next Wednesday, the NYC Peak Oil Meet-up will be meeting to specifically address ACTIONS (not just theories/words) that we can take to make NYC more sustainable. Please come with actionable short term ideas to get the word out about peak oil or build a more sustainable city.

Here is the message straight from the organizer:
What: Sustainable NYC

When: Wednesday, September 14, 6:30 - 7:30 PM

Where: Wai Cafe (6th avenue between 16th and 17th)

If you are ready to take action to make NYC sustainable in a
fuel-depleted future, come to the Sustainable NYC committee.
Do you want to do public outreach, organize groups and events,
or research policy options for NYC? Bring your own ideas,
brainstorm with others - and be ready to commit to working on a
project, not merely suggesting ideas for others to carry out.

Facilitated by Dan Miner and Lois Sturm.
Wai Cafe, Wed., Sept. 14, 6:30 - 7:30 PM

Learn more and RSVP

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Joining The Oil Drum

2005-09-03T09:58:00.000-04:00

My inspiration for starting this blog came in large part from reading and
contributing to a blog called The Oil Drum (TOD: www.theoildrum.com). They
have done an excellent job of covering the international and national level
news related to Peak Oil, adding their expert commentary and perspective.
Their recent coverage of the implications of Katrina for the oil industry
has been absolutely stellar, providing insider information on what is really
happening behind the scenes before the Mainstream Media reports on it.

I started this blog to cover local issues on transportation, energy,
housing, etc from the perspective of preparing for the eventual consequences
of peak oil since each community will have to adapt in different ways.

The folks over at TOD have invited me to join their new scoop website and I
have gladly accepted. Over the next week I will be transitioning this blog
over to www.nyc.theoildrum.com

The Scoop website will allow for greater interactivity and collaboration.
This collaboration between national and local contributors all in one place
will help us better share best practices and learn from each other.

I will be calling on folks from the NYC Tri-State Area to become regular
contributors, particularly if you have expertise in specific areas. Stay
tuned for more details.

With that, I will be on vacation until Tuesday evening, only writing from my
Blackberry if something really strikes me. I hereby grant Ianqui full powers
to post whatever she wants.

Finally please dig deep into your pockets and contribute what you can to the
victims of Katrina. Craigslist has a good list of charities and is running a
temporary housing matching program.

Gas Is So Cheap!

2005-09-02T10:14:00.000-04:00

While everyone else in the country seems to be complaining about high gas prices are, I'm lamenting how cheap it is compared to Amtrak.

I'm planning a trip from NYC to Washington DC for the weekend and I wanted to see if the new gas prices at $3-3.50 would make Amtrak more competitive for two people to take the train instead of drive. NY Penn Station to Union Station in DC is about as well traveled an intra-city rail connection as there is in the country. It only takes about three and a half hours each way and trains run pretty much every hour.

So let's do the math on the incentives to drive vs. take the train, assuming we simply park the car when we arrive and do not use it for anything except intracity transportation:

Amtrak ticket: $80 each way, $160 roundtrip (no discount for RT!)
2004 Honda Civic: 250 miles, 30 mpg, assume $3 and $3.50/gallon gas = $25-30/each way. That's really cheap compared to the $80 Amtrak tickets.

Not that most people factor this into their plans, but gas is only a fraction of the cost of using a car for this trip. Let's assume parking is $25 each night x 3 nights. Tolls will be another $15 each way (bridge/NJ Turnpike/Tunnel). That brings us up to a total roundtrip cost for the car to $155-165. Ok that's competitive on the margin for one person to take the train, but remember this was a two person trip, meaning the car costs would be cut in half. This is the power of carpooling.

For me this exposed several issues:
1. Despite all the groaning out there about gas prices, I truly doubt that this will change behaviors except for some financially strapped people on the margins who really can't afford to pay for the extra gas. Gas is a pretty good value at $3/gallon.

2. Amtrak needs better funding to compete with the auto/airline industry. I think the government should take on more of the burden of investing in improving the rail infrastructure (like it does for highways!) and start to introduce more competition for regional passenger rail services. Even drivers should support these proposals because this takes cars off the road - less traffic.

3. Having alternatives helps you make solid financial calculations to decide what your incentives are, but unfortunately for many people there is no alternative to their car. We need to identify opportunities to expand mass transit into suburban communities, assuming they become interested in increasing their range of choices.

Ultimately I convinced my travel companion to take the train simply to do our part for lowering consumption during our time of need. So there is my contribution for the cause this weekend.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, Environment, Energy, NY State

Every Man for Himself

2005-09-02T06:46:00.000-04:00

This was perhaps the most anticipated natural disaster in history. For decades, all levels of government were aware that a major Hurricane would devastate New Orleans and much of the surrounding areas. As Paul Krugman points out this morning in the NY Times, FEMA listed the New Orleans hurricane scenario as "perhaps the most deadly", more deadly than a major terrorist attack in NYC or an earthquake in San Francisco. Much effort was made to prepare the city for at least a Category 3 Hurricane, but it seems now that there was no real back-up plan for a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane.

Instead, the alert went out to residents to get out by any means possible. The president urged anyone in the storm's path "to put their own safety and the safety of their families first by moving to safe ground."

Basically, this was a call for those with cars to jump in and get out. For everyone else, they had no plan except to get to the Superdome, if possible. For the elderly, for the disabled, for those that did not own cars, they were all on their own. And since Monday, they have had no shelter, no running water, no electricity and no food, save for what they could find.

In New Orleans 27% of the population lives below the poverty line. Many of these folks did not have cars to immediately flee the city. Effectively, there was no plan for them. It truly was every man for himself.

The swift breakdown in civilization is something that many people who have studied peak oil worry about. This really should be a lesson learned on how not to evacuate a city. However, I'm really trying to not give in to the "every man for himself" mentality. We are ALL in this together. If this happens to NYC, then god help us all. And if this could happen in a major metropolitan area, then don't think you will be safe in some rural outpost. You will be probably be found by greedy and fully armed people just as easily if law and order break down. In fact if you were allocating resources, would you concentrate your few resources in protecting urban areas or rural areas? If you go it alone, you better be very prepared. Or think of this another way - we are only hearing now about the urban chaos because that's what the media has been able to pick up. Just wait until you hear about the silent chaos/score settling happening in rural areas.

I wrote about the differences between the 2003 and 1977 New York blackouts in my review of James Goodman's Blackout. My basic conclusion was that negative economic conditions combined with a lack of immediate response by the police caused a much worse breakdown in 1977.

Recent events seem to confirm that civilization is somewhat fragile. Some would interpret these events as a reason to become ever more self-reliant, further insulating them from society and and that is a natural response. You should take steps to prepare yourself for a number of eventualities - including the evacuation of yourself and family from NYC. Personally, I keep a bag ready to go with a sleeping bag, water, food for 2 days, a first aid kit, flashlight, etc.

But really the answer lies not in a nation full of survivalists, but in strong communities that can withstand major crises. Rather than withdrawing into our own private bunkers when the oil storm strikes, we need to build stronger more sustainable communities now.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Second Letter to Friends and Family

2005-09-01T09:54:00.000-04:00

Following up on my letter to Friends and Family back in July, I decided that in light of the sky rocketing oil prices, I would send out another letter to help put the current situation into perspective.

----------------------------

Dear Friends and Family

The devastation from hurricane Katrina is now becoming apparent both in the terrible loss of human life and the total evacuation of New Orleans, a unique and economically important city.

What will probably become more apparent in the coming weeks and months is just how dependent America is on oil. Katrina has stopped production of about 1-2 million barrels of oil a day and a similar amount of refining capacity. This is roughly 5-10% of the daily US oil consumption of 20 million barrels a day. It has also slowed oil imports from abroad as repair work continues on the Ports along the Mississippi river. This is why gas prices have gone from $2.40 to over $3 in some places.

But even before Katrina, the oil production and refining system was operating at near full capacity to met the growing demand of oil in the US and in the developing nations of Asia. Anything could have disrupted this delicate supply chain, it just so happened that Katrina was the event. But now we are even more vulnerable to political instability in oil exporting nations and ever more dependent on their willingness to supply the oil we have become addicted to.

There is also a theory believed among many academics and oil industry insiders that the world many be near it's peak in oil production. That we may not be able to physically continue to increase the rate of extraction of oil from the ground. This is not saying that we will "run out" of oil, but we will have to adjust to a steadily decreasing supply of oil - either through conservation or replacement of other sources, if possible.

This is just something that I would like you to consider. I'm hoping that a better understanding of the issues will give you more perspective on the current situation. Think about it and come to your own conclusions.

You can learn more about the theory of peak oil at these websites:
Good introductions: Wikipedia, Energy Bulletin, Peakoil.com,

More scary Scenarios: Saintbryan, Kunstler, Matt Savinar, dieoff.com

Last month I started a blog to write about this subject and I invite you to read more about this at other websites, in particular The Oil Drum, which is run by folks far more expert in the subject area than I have in my research. I wrote two of my own introductions on my blog to the subject of peak oil - "What is Peak Oil?" and "What is Peak Oil? Part 2" about the concept and what this means for our way of life. Also, this subject can be depressing to think about, but really what I am advocating for is a more sustainable way of life.

In the short term, I would like all of you to do what you can can to conserve gasoline during the next 2-3 months while the country adjusts to a temporary loss in supply. More long term, I urge you to think about how you can alter your lifestyle to consume less oil.

Thanks for listening. I invite your questions and comments.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Friends in the Sustainable Blogosphere

2005-08-31T23:06:00.000-04:00

I'd like to point regular readers of this site to check out some great blogs that I have been following over the past few weeks and highlight some other people involved in building a more sustainable world.

Upstate in Syracuse, NY we have Baloghblog, who has been taking pictures of gas stations and has recently wrote an interesting post on taking a low energy vacation. He's also been keeping me up-to-date on gas prices with daily photos of gas signs in his area. We love the photos Baloghblog, but we hope you're in the passenger seat when you take them!

Cityhippy reminds me that all the little stuff we do matters and has collected more than 430 bookmarks on interesting sites dealing with sustainable living and regularly posts articles about people trying to live a more sustainable life. Recently CityHippy did an interview with the founder of GuideMeGreen - an inspiring guy.

Starts and Fits latest post is on the lunacy of GM's emphasis on heavy trucks to drive sales in the recent run-up in gas prices. Somebody over at the NYC Department of Fixing Stuff must read that page considering the recent quick turnaround on a request he posted.

Jeff over at Sustainablog has been a great source of information this Summer while he was vacation from school, although lately with school starting he seems content to use the Weekly World News as a key source on Peak Oil news. But then again, where else would I find out that "Gals Who Go Topless Live Longer"

Also, check out some of my links to the right and send me any of your favorite sites.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Rally Today Against Mass Arrests of Cyclists

2005-08-31T13:32:00.000-04:00

From Time's Up:

RALLY AGAINST MASS ARRESTS and POLICE REPRESSION
Wednesday, Aug. 31, 5:30 p.m.
Centre St. sidewalk east of City Hall (bet. Spruce and Beekman)

Last August marked the beginning of mass arrests during Critical Mass. In the past year, over 500 cyclists have been arrested for riding their bikes. Forty-nine cyclists were arrested just last Friday. Don't be silenced! Come out and protest all mass arrests and illegal detentions that took have taken place since the RNC, when hundreds were arrested, some while engaging in peaceful protest actions, others while simply passing by during the mass arrests. Let the Bloomberg Administration know you are outraged

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Finding Your Carpool

2005-08-30T23:16:00.000-04:00

As I mentioned earlier, there will be higher gasoline prices while production, imports and refining capacity is cut in the wake of Katrina. I think the best way to reduce prices is to have as much voluntary reductions in gas consumption as possible over the next 2-3 months. Perhaps we can learn some ways of permanently reducing our demand for gas during this period of time to help learn how to adjust to a more sustainable way of life.

One easy way of reducing demand is to eliminate as much single occupancy vehicles as possible and start carpooling more. According the US Census report that I recently downloaded, only 1 in 7 NY State commuters carpool of those who use a car as their primary way to travel to work.

On the 10 o'clock news I saw them cover a service that helps connect people in need of a ride. It's called NuRide. Go check it out. Even if you don't own a car, you can participate. And you can earn points toward gift certificates from their sponsors. Help create a more sustainable way of life in your community.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Heartbreaking News from New Orleans

2005-08-30T22:53:00.000-04:00

So I'm sitting at home watching and reading about the unfolding disaster happening in New Orleans, Southern LA and Mississippi. I couldn't help but feel a deep sense of empathy for those caught in the storm's wake, particularly after reading about the death, destruction, looting and general chaos that reigns in the area. Then I read this:

With conditions in the hurricane-ravaged city of New Orleans rapidly
deteriorating, Gov. Kathleen Blanco said Tuesday that everyone still in the
city, now huddled in the Superdome and other rescue centers, needs to be
evacuated.

"The situation is untenable," Blanco said, pausing to choke back tears
at a news conference. "It's just heartbreaking."
The breach of two levees Tuesday meant the city was rapidly filling with water and the prospect of having power was a long time off, the governor said. She said the storm also severed a major water main, leaving the city without drinkable water.
"The goal is to bring enough supplies to sustain the people until we can establish a network to get them out," Blanco said.

It is heartbreaking. One of the oldest and most important US cities and trading ports has effectively been abandoned to the sea for an undefined period of time. Hundreds of thousands of people will be homeless for weeks to months.

Please dig deep into your compassion and donate whatever you can to the Red Cross Hurricane Fund.

Staten Islanders Call for Toll Fairness

2005-08-30T17:17:00.000-04:00

I don't often align with the Staten Island Advance Editorials page, but they recently took the Democratic candidates running for mayor to task for all coming out against East River, while also calling for increases in the MTA bridge tolls. Here's the pertinent exerpt:

Talk about talking out of both sides of your mouth.

Then the candidates were asked about putting tolls on the East River bridges, which are currently free to cross by car, in order to ease traffic congestion in Manhattan.
Naturally, each candidate declared his or her staunch opposition to that idea.

Anthony Weiner, who has tried to position himself as the defender of the middle class, asked, "Why is it fair that every time there's a challenge in this city, people want to raise taxes on the middle class?"

We'd ask Mr. Weiner: Why is it fair that the residents of Brooklyn and Queens pay nothing to drive into and home from Manhattan over the East River, while residents of Staten Island have to pay a whopping toll to drive home from Brooklyn?

I'll add my own self centered perpective as a current resident of Manhattan: Why is it that Manhattan has to bear the traffic and congestion of free-riders from Brooklyn taking the low toll route out of Brooklyn and Queens, thus avoiding the $8 toll on the Verrazanno-Narrows Bridge going into Staten Island?

What we really need is congestion pricing, car-free parks, harrassment-free biking, more investment in mass transit alternatives, better mass transit quality, better freight rail links, and more hybird Taxis and alternative fuel cars.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Composting for a greener New York

2005-08-30T15:14:00.000-04:00

My building's tenant's association has decided to begin a newsletter. Recently, after a neighbor saw me taking a my bag of compost to the Union Square Greenmarket, she asked me to write an article about composting to explain it to other building residents. I thought the information might be informative for readers of PO-NYC too.

I was a regular at the Union Square Greenmarket for almost two years before I got curious about the stand at the southeastern end of the market. “Help create a sustainable NYC!” their sign says. I stopped to look, and discovered that the stand is run by the Lower East Side Ecology Center (7th St. between Aves. A and B), which is dedicated to recycling, composting, and environmental education. At the Greenmarket, the volunteers collect kitchen scraps that are used to make compost. Compost provides nutrients to soil and helps it retain moisture.

Composting is environmentally responsible and practical too, since it benefits city gardeners. The LES Ecology Center website notes that “The Department of Sanitation (DSNY) collects roughly 11,000 tons of ‘garbage’ every day, and according to DSNY’s waste compositions analysis, organic materials – anything from yard, wood to food waste – make up 26% of the waste stream.” By composting, New Yorkers could potentially save 2,860 tons of waste per day from entering the sanitation system.

Composting is simple. I have a small garbage can for composting under the sink, but if you have a balcony, you could put a covered trash can outside. I line the can with a plastic bag, and during the week, I make sure to separate the organic waste from the rest of the trash. Organic waste consists of all vegetables and fruits, bread and pasta, coffee and tea, among other items. Dairy, meat, and animal food are not composted. The volunteers at the Greenmarket give out a detailed list of compostable items to take home. The next step is to take the compost up to the LES Ecology Center stand at the Union Square Greenmarket. They’re there on Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday from 8am-5pm. All you have to do is drop your bag in their bin.

In many ways, New Yorkers are good environmental citizens without realizing it. By living in apartment buildings and taking public transportation, our lifestyle is pretty efficient. But there are other minimal changes that people can make in order to further reduce both energy consumption and waste. For example, consider buying compact fluorescent light bulbs, which only consume about 25 watts of energy, but give off the same amount of light as a 100W bulb and last 10 times as long. Another idea is to carry a small cloth bag for short trips to the grocery store. Cloth bags can be folded into a square just a couple of inches wide and easily stored in your purse or briefcase.

In the end, the small actions will help New York City become a greener place to live.

Technorati Tags: peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, composting, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Simmons on Brian Lehrer

2005-08-30T08:18:00.000-04:00

Matthew Simmons, author of "Twilight in the Desert" an expose of the Saudi
oil industry which explains peak oil, will be on Brian Lehrer's show today
on NPR. You can catch the show on 820 AM or on their website.

Freakonomics Taken Down A Notch

2005-08-29T13:38:00.000-04:00

As a quick follow-up to my exchange with Dr. Levitt over at Freakonomics, please see this insightful guest post over at Kunstler's site by Dmitry Podborits which pulls apart Dr. Levitt's post comparing media attention of Peak Oil to shark attacks. Well done Dmitry!

peak oil, alternative energy, Energy

Prayers for New Orleans

2005-08-29T06:57:00.000-04:00

New Orleans sits 18 feet below sea level. Whatever water goes over the storm levies, will pool up in the city center and need to be pumped out.

The port of Southern Louisiana is the busiest US port, fifth largest port in the world, a remains the key entry point for a wide array of imports and exports up and down the Mississippi.

Again, aside from the weathermen blowing around on TV, stay tuned to www.theoildrum.com on how this storm will affect the fragile oil/gas markets. While this storm is actually more about global warming / climate change more than it is about peak oil, it will expose just how dependent we all are cheap oil. Hopefully leaders around the country will realize that reducing short term and long term demand is the clearest way to reduce prices for all.

Most of all our thoughts and prayers should be with the people of New Orleans, Southern Louisiana, Mississippi and all the other people in the affected zone. Let us pray that the loss of life is minimal and few become homeless.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Coverage of August Critical Mass Ride

2005-08-28T20:10:00.000-04:00

The city and NYPD by extension are basically at war with the people who participate in the monthly Critical Mass bike ride (last Friday of the every month at Union Square). I read on Bikeblog that last Friday they arrested something like 49 riders (NY Times count). The city really looks ridiculous in this whole debacle. For more coverage go take a look at some blog posts over at NYC Indymedia.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Carpooling for Katrina?

2005-08-28T18:43:00.000-04:00

I feel rather helpless watching Katrina bear down on Southern Louisiana, the great city of New Orleans and the entire state of Mississippi. This could be an enormous disaster that ripples well beyond the directly affected disaster zone. Indeed, the port of Southern Louisiana handles a significant percentage of US oil imports from abroad. There are also major offshore and onshore oil production and refining facilities that will at least be closed for at least a few precious days, instead of running at full capacity, necessary to maintain current supply levels. If they are severely damaged (it may take weeks or months to bring back online) the economic impacts will echo throughout the entire United States. Katrina could reduce the gas supply by 5-10%. The impact on prices could be significant.

For more detail on this unfolding crisis, please stay tuned for updates from The Oil Drum.

What can we New Yorkers do to help soften the economic blow? Reduce our gas consumption in any ways that make sense. In a word: Carpool!

In the weeks after 9/11, the city imposed a ban on single occupant passenger cars entering the city during the morning commute. I think this should temporarily be re-instituted as long as necessary to help the nation reduce its demand at a time when supply is short.

Please write to your councilperson, the Mayor and other elected officials to reduce demand locally through banning single occupant vehicles during the morning commute into Manhattan and reducing official vehicle use as much as possible. I would also love to see community leaders call for voluntary reductions in consumption that make sense.

Please write to your national level elected officials in the House and Senate that measures to reduce demand should be taken before opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Swift action to voluntarily reduce demand could stave off a crisis and help preserve our SPR for even worse disasters or national security crises (like Iran/OPEC cutting supplies).

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, Energy, NY State

All U Can Eat - Get It While You Can

2005-08-28T17:15:00.000-04:00

Every so often I hear a random song that completely captures a moment in time. I few months ago I wrote into The Oil Drum when I heard Billy Joel's "I've loved these days" from the album Turnstiles.

Yesterday I was listening to some Ben Folds and came across this gem, which seems to capture for me the American culture of overconsumption.

All U Can Eat

Son, look at all the people in this restaurant
What do you think they weigh?
And out the window to the parking lot
At their SUV’s taking all the space

They give no f*ck
They talk as loud as they want
They give no f*ck
Just as long as there’s enough for them

Gonna get on the microphone down at Wal-Mart
Talk about some shit that’s been on my mind
Talk of the state of this great nation of ours
People look to your left
Yeah, look to your right

They give no f*ck
They buy as much as they want
They give no f*ck
Just as long as there’s enough for them

Son, look at the people lining up for plastic
Wouldn’t you like to see them in the National Geographic?
Squatting bare assed in the dirt eating rice from a bowl
With a towel on their head, and maybe a bone in their nose

See that asshole with the peace sign on his license plate?
Giving me the finger and running me out of his lane

God made us number one because he loves us the best
Well he should go bless someone else for a while
Give us a rest (They give no)
Yeah, and everyone can see (They give no)
We’ve eaten all that we can eat

----
Submit your own songs that have some relevance to peak oil.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Economics, Freedom & Choices

2005-08-27T13:09:00.000-04:00

I've been discussing the issue of how society could respond to peak oil if they became aware. Since I believe that the situation could worsen quickly in the next few years, particularly if the rise in energy costs has a domino effect on inflation, consumer purchasing power, unsustainable debt and a crash in the major asset categories (real estate, bonds, stocks), I would prefer a crash program by government to prepare the country for the coming storm. I could see the government tightening regulation on fuel efficiency standards and enforcing a 55 mph speed limit as a start, but I doubt that would go far enough.

So then I mentioned to my friends that I think the government should take a leading role in re-organizing society to become more fuel efficient and rally the country to conserve fuel similar to the campaigns during the world wars, where it became patriotic to conserve rather than waste. This is where they started to object, accusing me of imposing my own vision of social engineering on the general population and of favoring government propaganda.

Their take was that "economics" would sort out much of the adaptation without governmental interference and that curtailing "freedoms" to change behavior was a slippery slope leading to fascism/communism (take your pick of most feared extreme totalitarian regime).

Here is why I disagree with this assessment.

On economics: I would say that the massive investments our government currently invests in highway reconstruction alone have created a society that in many places is completely dependent on the automobile. Add in all the other indirect costs of maintaining this culture of automobiles (tax incentives, pollution, wars, etc) and you basically have a government that has been heavily subsidizing this societal model for decades.

And this model crowds out other viable lifestyles or societal models to the point where many communities have no transportation alternative. Witness all the suburban communities that have no sidewalks, no bike paths, where you have no choice but to get in your car to cross the road outside your front door. As gas prices rise they will find that they have no choice but to pay whatever price is posted at the pump. I think the government can provide more choices to these communities by making more investments in mass transit now.

On government "propaganda": I strongly believe that the government is basically willfully ignoring or actively covering up the peak oil issue. They have suppressed the Hirsch report and covered up the topics addressed in Cheney's Energy taskforce. Following 9/11/01, when the government could have rallied people to the cause of energy conservation and made energy independence a national cause they instead advocated getting back on airplanes, taking vacations and spending money to support the economy.

On freedoms: I basically agree that no one should ever be compelled to do something against their will, but rather appropriate incentives should be applied given the impact of that behavior on others. So for instance freight trucks have a much greater impact on roads than passenger cars and as such should pay a much higher proportion of the cost for road upkeep, whichever way that is collected. Accounting for this cost would potentially create the right incentives for switching a greater portion of freight transportation to rails.

However there are cases where freedoms come directly into conflict. For instance the constant flow of car and truck traffic in NYC inhibit my freedom to ride my bike (or scooter if I owned one) since to do so would risk major injury or death. These freedoms need to be balanced better.

Then there is the public health perspective. We live in an extremely interdependent society with or without cheap oil. Similar to a spreading epidemic, economic depressions have a way of hurting everyone in some way. No man is an island and no matter how much we individually prepare and insulate ourselves from the economic shocks that soaring energy prices will bring, we will all suffer as the economy slides. You may not own or rely on a car, but do you own a co-op? Well, even if your finances remain strong, your neighbors may not. If your neighbors lose their jobs or all their money in stock market crash, then you may end up with a financially bankrupt co-op. And none of us (even those who go down the subsistance agricultural route) will be immune from higher crime rates and other social ills stemming from a severe economic downturn. We are in this together and have no choice about it.

That is why I care about spreading awareness about peak oil and want to convince people to take this seriously. So that together we can take action to alter our lifestyle and create a new society less dependent on oil.

Green Building Tour

2005-08-25T22:05:00.000-04:00

This evening I took at tour of the "The Solaire" a 27 story, 293 unit building that was the first to be built under the Battery Park City Authority's groundbreaking Residential Environmental Guidelines. These “Green Guidelines” were developed in 1999 as a vision for the construction of environmentally responsible buildings in New York State. It was built in 2003 within a stone's throw from Ground Zero. The land itself was actually landfill from the excavation of the original WTC site.

Though the Green Guidelines required energy efficiency 30% greater than what was mandated by the NYS Energy Code, The Solaire uses 35% less energy than a similar building designed to NYS code requirements, and 65% less electricity during peak demand periods. In addition, the building's design incorporated 382 small solar panels, which generate no less than 5% of the building's base electrical load, but only in common areas, not the apartments themselves. I was less than impressed that the designers had simply done the minimum necessary to get the tax credit.

While the solar panels are highly decorative, I wasn't as impressed with them as I was with the water treatment system The Solaire contains an onsite wastewater treatment facility – the first in the nation to be built inside a multi-family residential building – as well as a stormwater reuse system. Together with other water conservation strategies, these features result in a building that consumes 33-50% less potable water than a traditional building of comparable size. But just don't ask what's in sludge pipe. :)

Rather than a real model for sustainable living, I see the building as a transitional test case for even more environmentally friendly building in the future, giving planners something real to base future assumptions off of and prove that certain ideas work practically & economically. I read one estimate saying that rents at the Solaire (which range from a $3000/mo studio to a $4500/mo 2 bedroom) were about 5-10% higher than a similar building proving that people were willing to pay extra for a green building.

Now I wonder if I can convince my landlord to reduce the lighting in the hallways which are bright 24/7?

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Lobby GE For Wind Powered Liberty

2005-08-25T08:54:00.000-04:00

A few weeks ago I proposed an idea to give green power an image boost - making the Statue of Liberty's lights run on clean wind and solar power.

I think I have found the perfect partner for this endeavor, that is if they really want to make green power a reality. You may have heard of their ecomagination campaign. General Electric is trying to put an green shine on their corporate image emphasizing its newer cleaner technologies including more efficient machines and even windmills. GE was also involved in making security tighter at the Statue of Liberty, donating their bomb detecting equipment, so I figure they must already have some of the relationships in place.

Last night I sent a short letter to GE informing them of my proposal. I have not heard back yet, but I have seen some traffic to the website from some of their locations, so perhaps now is the point where a little extra push from the public would help nudge them in the right direction.

Send your note of support for this project at this site and link them back to the original post on the blog: http://peakoilnyc.blogspot.com/2005/08/wind-powered-liberty.html.

It's time to declare Lady Liberty Free of Fossil Fuels.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

State Per Capita Gas Consumption

2005-08-24T22:33:00.000-04:00

While the entire country seems obsessed with gas prices, no seems to be really curtailing their consumption. Ianqui writes about this topic in some of her recent posts over at the Oil Drum, including one that has some bright spots. Everyday I read something different about how people are coping with the high gas prices - mostly cutting back on their expenses in other areas and using easy credit. The overall cost of gas to the nation or individual (and the overall economic impact) is a function price times consumption. Since we have no control over prices, let's take a look at the consumption side of the equation.

Unfortunately consumption data seems much harder to find than price data. Today I have done some digging on the state level gas consumption from a report that the California State government did this year. On a per capita basis NY State consumes the least amount of gas (297 gallons/capita) than any other state. Washington DC consumes even less (214 gallons/capita). NY consumes less than half of what Oklaholma and Wyoming consume per person. Still there is much work to be done. Many European countries have even lower consumption rates than NY.

What the chart really shows is just how dependent on fossil fuels suburban and rural parts of the country are compared to urban areas. This confirms my thinking that areas that are well served by mass transit and commuter rail links will probably fare much better as gas prices continue to climb. If anyone can send me something about the relationship between population density and gas consumption, I would appreciate it.

Finally, after about a month of running peakoilnyc, I will have some major changes coming to the site sometime next week which I am going to keep a surprise until everything is set-up off line. I believe that it is a natural evolution for this site and will further the cause of integrating the various local, national, international websites collaborating on how to best inform and prepare people everywhere for the implications of peak oil. Stay tuned.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Betting on Peak Oil

2005-08-23T22:26:00.000-04:00

If you start to define the characteristics of the American spirit, the profit motive would rank pretty high on that list. While I continue to discuss the peak oil issue with people on and off line, the one topic that everyone seems to be interested in is how to make money off of it (even if they reject the main ideas). In fact, by far the most hits that have ever come to this site was when I summarized some of my own financial moves in anticipation of peak oil. In fact, when I tell people that they should start putting some of their money into gold as a hedge against a stock market crash, people seem to be listening a lot closer and actually engage in follow-up questions like: How do you buy gold?

Betting was the topic of today's column by John Tierney, who placed a wager with Matt Simmons that oil would not hit $200/barrel by 2010. Of course Tierney takes the pure economics notion that technical progress and innovation will force prices down over time. Given that, I wondered why then he did not bet Matt Simmons that oil would go back to it's historic price in the $15-25 range. In fact, I wondered why they didn't just look at today's commodities market future price for December 2010 which sits at $60.56, $5 less than the current spot price. Tierney seems to be giving himself quite a margin of safety! From my perspective Simmons has already won the main point, which is that oil is definitely headed up in price.

In typical American style I feel like it should be pretty easy to make a killing if you can see an event happen long before it occurs. If you want to place your own wager, a good first step might be to go to www.hedgestreet.com where you can place small bets on the direction of the oil or gas market with small denominations of cash (minimum start-up cost is $100). I'm not sure how liquid that market is yet, so caveat emptor.

I've also been trying to figure out how to start buying oil futures and options. I'm a little scared since I think everything has to be purchased with either large amounts of cash or on margin (a big no-no for inexperienced investors). I saw an ad for a commodities broker on The Oil Drum (by no means do I believe they endorse them) that seemed to specialize in new commodities investors. Again keep your guard up and test the waters with small positions before expanding your exposure.

I feel like it is a win-win bet. If oil tanks, it probably means that we have learned how to re-engineer our society to use less oil and civilization is saved (that's spelled V-i-c-t-o-r-y!). If oil prices continue to rise then at least you have protected yourself and can use your new wealth to help rebuild our economy.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Energy, NY State

From Peak Oilers to Citizens for Sustainable Living

2005-08-22T18:54:00.000-04:00

"Yeah, the Mets just can't pull it together this year. Turning to another subject, I'd like you to completely forget everything you believe about free market economics, reject your whole way of life and share my dark vision of the world to come. Won't you join me?"

From the strange looks and reactions I get that seems to encapsulate the way I must come off to people I talk to about peak oil. It's a lot to take in, requires many leaps of logic and overcoming many layers of mass denial and ends with a doomsday scenario that makes the Great Depression sound like a relatively pleasant experience. It makes me depressed to think too much about it, but my convictions run too deep on this issue to ignore it and not want to inform others. I believe that overcoming the problems of peak oil is the greatest challenge that my generation (I'm 29) will face.

But this is a problem that "peak oilers" face in communicating this issue to the general public (and even the well educated elites) - no one likes a pessimist, even if they have much truth in what they advocate. What politician wants to stand on the stump and say "Follow me and your children will have a lower standard of living than you do"?

That is why I would like to start reframing the peak oil issue from one that focuses on the negative doom and gloom consequences of inaction into one that presents a positive vision of creating a sustainable society with healthier lifestyles for all citizens. However negative the consequences, we must focus on what we are for, not just what we are against.

So here's my short list of what should be included in the (peak) oil plank of the Citizens for Sustainable Living platform:

Insist on complete transparancy of the world's oil reserves and production on a well by well basis.
Make national energy independence a national economic and security goal
Create an energy efficiency ethic in society that abhors wasteful behaviors
Raise fuel economy standards for passenger cars and trucks - encourage adoption of hybrids, electric plug-ins and other more sustainable automobile designs
Re-institute the 55 mph speed limit for maximum efficiency
Decrease traffic through better design, congestion pricing, more telecommuting, staggered start hours, off-peak commuting incentives carpooling, etc.
Invest in building and maintaining mass transit systems to connect as many communities as possible.
Invest in the national passenger and freight rail infrastructure
Revise building codes for maxiumum energy efficiency
Encourage walking, biking, line skating and all forms of self propelled transportation through clearly marked lanes and public awareness campaigns.
Encourage local food production, urban green gardens, farmer markets.
Generate as much local power as possible from solar, wind, biomass, hydro/tidal and other sustainable forms of energy

I invite others to post their own ideas, elaborate on those listed above, debate which are the most important.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Peak Oil Going Mainstream

2005-08-21T20:48:00.000-04:00

I have read through the whole Maass piece on peak oil in the Sunday Magazine section of the NY Times. I have many thoughts but I'm just going to rattle off a couple of key points and then post a copy my letter to Dr. Stephen Levitt, author of "Freakonomics", who wrote a dismissive review of the article on his blog.

First of all, hats off to Maass for scoring the interview with Sadad al-Husseini, the ex-Aramco executive. I think we might finally have our credible Saudi insider who is not beholden to the Saudi government or any other interest group that I can see. His comments seem to suggest that the Saudis have a limit to their production somewhere between 12 and 15 mbd. If true, this means they haven't peaked yet, but really don't have much excess supply capacity. It seems Matt Simmons is pretty close to the scary truth without the inside information and al-Husseini just gave us the wink and nod that he is close. I look forward to Maass' full book and hopefully more public statements from Sadad al-Husseini.

Second, the implications of this article for introducing the concept of peak oil to the public should not be underestimated. While the Times certainly has its critics, it is still highly respected as the paper of record. While this will not be an instant revelation that will cause a massive popular response, it does represent a critical step in bringing peak oil out of the relm of "wacko" conspiracy & doomsday theorists and into more respectable circles of political and economic debate. This is a tool that should be used to at least raise conciousness in the general community. I urge all of you to read the article and pass it on to your friends.

Ok, now onto Dr. Freakonomics....who I am very disappointed in. Here's a link to his knee-jerk economic analysis of peak oil. I was appalled, but not really surprised. Here is the gist of his counter-argument:

One might think that doomsday proponents would be chastened by the long history of people of their ilk being wrong: Nostradamus, Malthus, Paul Ehrlich, etc. Clearly they are not. What most of these doomsday scenarios have gotten wrong is the fundamental idea of economics: people respond to incentives. If the price of a good goes up, people demand less of it, the companies that make it figure out how to make more of it, and everyone tries to figure out how to produce substitutes for it. Add to that the march of technological innovation (like the green revolution, birth control, etc.). The end result: markets figure out how to deal with problems of supply and demand.

That might work if we were talking about a commodity or manufactured good that had easy substitutes and was not the main foundation of our modern society. Here is my reply:

Dr. Levitt

I urge you not to make hasty comments about this subject without deeper analysis. Oil is not just a commodity, it is THE commodity that makes everything in our modern world possible, in particular food production and most forms of transportation. Barring some major innovation, there is no technology or energy source that can replace oil and it's many uses. It's like water and air. 6 Billion people need oil. 100 million maybe...

If you read the Maass article closer you will find that really the oil market right now suffers from gross price distortion (probably way too low) because of a dearth of basic data on reserves and a well by well analysis of production rates. This is why people like Matt Simmons have been crying out for more data. Until we have more data I don't think anyone should be complacent about oil prices moving slowly in any direction.

The problem is that we have invested Trillions of Dollars into an economic structure predicated on consistently low oil prices. We have trusted politically motivated leaders and economic interests that oil is plentiful and can meet an ever rising level of demand. If we had better data then the market could have continuously bid up the price as it became increasingly apparent that oil supplies were becoming scarce.

Instead we are left with a situation in which all of this will become apparent when there are real shortages which will cause a huge spike in prices and the Saudis simply cannot increase production to alleviate the shortage. Then the market will react with brutal efficiency throwing the economy into an economic depression. Will oil restabilize at a lower price? Perhaps. It depends on whether you think inflation will be the main effect or an economic collapse causing rapid deflation of asset and massive unemployment. Remember that everything is relative. If there is rapid deflation and massive unemployment, then $10/barrel may be unaffordable. Please research this subject more closely and come back to us with a more thorough analysis of the subject. It's only the fate of our economy and civilization that hang in the balance.

If you want to share your thoughts with Dr. Levitt, his email is at this site.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Break Point on Peak Oil

2005-08-21T09:34:00.000-04:00

I just picked up the NY Times this morning which has a very long article in the magazine section that many people have suggested is the best Main Stream Media description of peak oil. I will post my review later tonight.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Book Review: Death of The Automobile

2005-08-20T15:16:00.000-04:00

When we talk about oil, we are really talking about the highest quality, most easily produced and distributed fuel source for the internal combustion engine. And when we talk about the internal combustion engine, we are really talking about the automobile. That's what makes the work that is reported on at the Green Car Congress so important. Failing a total revolution in car design and a simultaneous revolution in an alternative fuel that can replace fossil fuels, society will face a major crisis in transportation.

On car ride up to camping in New Hampshire (yes, even peakguy gets into a car every so often!), I stopped by a small book cooperative along I-91 and my friend showed me a book he found in the maze of categories that related to my favorite topic. The book was titled: The Death of the Automobile and was written in 1972by John Jerome (1932-2002), a former ad guy for the car industry and editor of Car and Driver magazine.

It is a book that is well ahead of its time, fitting in closely with Ralph Nader's classic book "Unsafe at Any Speed" on safety, but also making many forward looking arguments about urban planning, suburban sprawl, environmental impact, fiscal impact of constantly paving and repaving roads. In particular, Jerome chastises the US automobile industry for squandering all the engineering advances of the time from 1955 and 1970 on simply building bigger, faster, less safe, less efficient automobiles that will eventually have such a massive impacts on society and the environment that they will ultimately become an unsustainable feature of modern life such that either society will have to make massive changes to regulate the impact of the automobile or the automobile will destroy modern society. He likens the automobile industry to the buffalo hunters of the 19th century - destroying an older, more sustainable lifestyle to force those people into a new dependent relationship leaving them few alternatives politically and economically except to pay tribute to the same people that destroyed their way of life.

One piece of consumer insight that he realizes long before the advent of SUVs is the American fascination with size and speed (preferably both together!). He describes the vicous cycle of making automobiles bigger and faster, making a bigger engine requires a bigger frame, a bigger and more powerful engine attached to a larger frame require heavier brakes and more complex steering assistance, etc, etc. I would add that bigger cars and the suburban lifestyle which requires little to no physical exertion, which creates bigger people. Bigger people are much less likely to want a small compact car and instead prefer the comfort of a large SUV. You can almost imagine the case of a family that fled the city in a Volkwagen bug in the late '60s or '70s, lived the suburban lifestyle for 30 years and find themselves with little choice but to fit their larger, older and less fit selves into a mini-van or SUV which they are completely dependent on for every aspect of their economic and social lives.

On the way back from the camping trip, feeling really energized from all the distance and weight we covered, we laughed when we saw a bumper sticker on the back of a mini-van that I guess described the owner's love hate relationship with her vehicle: Minivans Are Tangible Proof of Evil.

Much of what J. Jerome prophesized about not only has come true, but has mutated and metastesized into even larger less efficient automobiles, greater suburban sprawl and an unsustainable lifestyle that has no future. With peak oil on the near horizon, the death of the automobile is approaching faster than we are prepared to have mass scale alternatives in place.

I highly recommend reading more about how automobiles have changed our society. Specifically related to NYC, there is one historical figure that changed the face of our modern living environment to adapt to the automobile: Robert Moses. In the next few weeks one of my good friends will write a review of "Power Broker" a biography of Robert Moses written by Robert Caro.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Making Peak Oil Understandable

2005-08-19T17:31:00.000-04:00

I finally received my copy of "The End of Suburbia" from the Post-Carbon Institute and watched it earlier this week. I realize now why this is a good tool for educating the average person about peak oil. While the cheesy 1950's films on suburbia are perhaps not the best way to open the film, within about 20 minutes the film makes clear, concise and understandable the issue of how the current American suburban lifestyle is unsustainable because of the coming energy crunch. The revolving cast of Simmons, Campbell, Kunstler, Heinberg and company paint a rather compelling picture of how peak oil will affect the world, and indeed how it has already affected our foreign policy toward the Middle East. By the end of the 78 minutes, the film goes beyond simple reasoning and taps into a range of emotional doomsday scenarios - economic and monetary collapse, social order breaking down, war, population decline, etc.

While I have had some success in convincing some of my close friends about the serious nature of peak oil, I have met more denial than acceptance. One reason I think that people are hesitant to accept peak oil is because they simply have not heard experts like Matt Simmons speak on the issue because the Main Stream media has shunned him. I think this documentary can be used as good tool to raise awareness of peak oil with credible sources that are authoritative on the subject.

You can buy the movie from the Post-Carbon Institute. And it's available on Netflix! Rent it today and recommend it to your friends.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

New Yorkers feel the pain, too

2005-08-17T23:15:00.000-04:00

Most of us don't drive much, but still, rising gas prices hurt city residents. The New York Sun reports on the effect the higher prices are having on cabbies and the city budget.

I wasn't planning on posting this article here, except that then they touched on my pet issue: Chuck Schumer and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Still, New York's politicians are vowing to take action to lower gas prices.

At a press conference yesterday, Mayor Bloomberg said the Department of Consumer Affairs is inspecting gas stations to make sure that retailers aren't watering down their petroleum or manipulating their meters.

And in June, Senator Schumer introduced an amendment to an energy bill that would have opened the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to domestic consumers. The amendment died after the Senate, in a vote of 57 to 39, voted to table it.

Ick. The last thing we need is for the press to spin this in a positive light.

Another worrisome bit:

Mr. Bombardiere, former owner of an Exxon station in downtown Brooklyn, said customers are increasingly using credit cards, rather than cash, to pay their escalating gas bills. And with credit-card companies taking a 3% fee on purchases made with plastic, the trend away from cash takes a heavy toll on stations' bottom lines.

I keep reading about how people are putting themselves further into debt because of high gas prices, and it bothers me. The credit card seems to be the classic (American) escapist response when people don't want to take responsibility for a financial crunch (to wit: thousands of college kids getting into debt to buy pizza and beer.) I wish I knew more about how personal debt affects the economy, but I know it's not good, and will be especially bad if our financial institutions collapse.

Still, I really do feel for the cabbies, and I wouldn't mind the city giving them a break somehow. But what a Catch-22. On one hand, I'd want to advocate for more subway riding and less taxi-taking, but on the other hand, it's these guys' livelihood. What's the solution to the problem?

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Reflections from the Wilderness

2005-08-16T22:15:00.000-04:00

I had a great camping trip this past weekend. I still ache from carrying around 35 lbs of dead weight over 18 miles of rough terrain, but I really loved the experience.

I learned a few good lessons along the way that might be of use to some of you who have an idea about heading for the hills when things start to get a little rough in civilization.

1. Water is Heavy! I guess this is a big duh for most of you, but a gallon of water weighs over 8 pounds. Luckily we were near many very clean springs and brooks that we either filtered or used iodine tablets on. If we had to carry all of our own water, we would have had another 20 lbs to carry around or we could have easily dehydrated after a few hours.

2. It's easy to overpack! I didn't use half the stuff that I brought with me. A couple of lightweight synthetic pieces of clothing are all you really need in terms of clothes. Layering is the way to stay warm. Cotton clothes are really not appropriate since they don't clean easily or dry off quickly (sweat, rain, mud, etc). Next time my pack should be about 1/2 the weight it was this time. Concentrate only on what is essential.

3. Good backpacks are worth every penny. I paid $230 for a good back pack at EMS and it really was worth it. Definitely get measured for one to make sure you get the right size and have them fit you into one. Backpacks that sit on your hips really take a load off of your shoulders and allow you to transport a greater weight more efficiently than any other method.

4. Bring extra shoes. My friend's boots completely fell apart and after we had hiked in 9 miles, this was a major disaster. Luckily we were able to apply a series of temporary fixes including ace bandage, tape, rope, a spare flip-flop, etc. Bring an extra pair of shoes as a back-up.

5. My body started to adapt to just being in constant motion, not really eating much, drinking lots of water and carrying lots of weight. It is important to pace yourself, but your body will start to adapt. After I got back, I felt that distance and weight were all fairly relative. Walking two miles to work did not seem like much compared to what I had just done. Then at work today, I climbed the stairs a few times between the 3rd and 9th Floors of my building. It didn't seem like that much effort comparatively.

Personally I don't plan on running for the hills, but I guess you should be prepare for any eventuality. If you do plan to run for the hills, definitely do a few practice runs. You will learn what works and what doesn't. Next up, NY Century Bike Tour on Sept. 11. I'm going to try to do the 35 mile ride. But first I need to undertake Operation Rescue Bike which entails a trip from Staten Island to the UES of Manhattan.

And speaking of biking, check out this story from The Villager about more details from the July Critical Mass ride. This administration and the police are really getting out of hand. Now they are arresting the press! I wonder what they would do to a blogger?

Peak Oil 101: Live Session Tomorrow

2005-08-16T21:07:00.000-04:00

I went to the NYC peak oil awareness meeting last week and they have started to break out the various threads of interest into separate meetings. Tomorrow they are having a Peak Oil 101 session that will be facilitated by one of the veterans of the group who is steeped in all the relevant issues. If you are just wondering about peak oil, what it means or have critical question to ask, I highly recommend you attend this session.

Here are the details:

When: Wednesday, August 17, 2005 at 7:00 PM

Where: Wai Cafe 6th avenue between 16th and 17th New York, NY

1. Peak Oil 101: Where we are, where we’re going. This will be an introductory but wide ranging seminar exploring many possible future scenarios, considering not only fossil fuel supplies, but how energy issues could affect the economy, the real estate market, and jobs. Facilitator: Bill BurkeFirst meeting: Wed., August 17, 7 – 8 PM, Wai Café.

2. Personal Preparations for a Reduced Energy Future: A forum in which we can acknowledge and discuss feelings about the situation, and learn about practical actions to take. At first the focus will be on financial planning.Facilitator: Simon Whelan.First meeting: Wed., August 17, 8 – 9 PM, Wai Café. Directly following one hour of PO 101.

I will not be able to attend. If someone who attends would like to write a comment to me about their thoughts I would appreciate it.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Green continuing ed at CUNY

2005-08-16T09:26:00.000-04:00

Hi everyone! I decided to join PeakOilNYC, since I kept sending Peakguy ideas for posts. It didn't seem fair making him do my work for me, so here I am. You probably already know this, but I'm also a regular poster at The Oil Drum, so if you don't already read us over there, come on over!

Today I want to let you know about some interesting continuing education workshops at CUNY Graduate Center (5th Ave at 34th St.) that are open to the public. Though not free in most cases, they are usually only a session or two, are reasonably priced and might be a good way to learn more about sustainability, green design, and the organic food chain.

Sustainable Future. These classes include Ten Principles for Successful Development Around Transit, Introduction to Sustainability, and The Bioregional Approach to Sustainable Cities, among others.
Architecture, Design, and Planning. Learn about green building design, photovoltaics in buildings, and sustainable construction.
Food Matters. These courses focus on organic vs. local, and how food systems impact the urban environment.

I'm thinking about taking the series called Beyond Farmer's Markets: Putting Food Systems on the Urban Map, since I'm especially interested in how an environment like a city, which obviously doesn't have agricultural capacity, will fare in the future.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Financial Preparations for Peak Oil

2005-08-15T08:26:00.000-04:00

Events in the oil markets seem to be moving even faster than I had originally expected. While political leaders at all levels of government seem oblivious to the growing imbalance between supply of oil and the worldwide increase in demand, each of us at a personal level have the ability to cushion the financial impact to ourselves.

I am not a financial genius and do not have any credentials in the area of financial advice. That said, I have read much about the different ways that people are protecting their hard earned capital in advance of the coming oil crunch. As always, do your own due diligence and keep in mind what your investment time horizon is. Here are some general ideas to consider:

Precious Metals: The most conservative approach would be to simply buy some gold and silver. If the US dollar were to be undermined by high inflation, this seems to be a logical hedge to preserve your capital. Gold is normally positively correlated with oil prices and negatively correlated with the stock market. There are two schools of thought on gold - buy an ETF backed by gold like ticker symbol GLD or buy the actual physical product and store it somewhere safe. You choose which better fits your mindset (level of alarm) about peak oil.

Alternative Energy Stocks/Funds: As oil becomes more expensive, all alternative energy sources will become relatively more economically viable and government may start to provide more incentives than ever before to accelerate technological innovation and adoption. If you are not sure about individual companies, one way to invest is to buy one of the alternative energy funds that is out there, like Powershares Wilderhill Clean Energy Fund (Ticker: PBW). I would look at the composition of their portfolio for individual stocks, such as Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Ballard Power (BLDP), Plug Power (PLUG) and many others.

Rail Companies: As tractor trailer fuel costs rise, freight rail transport will become increasingly more cost efficient. Plus there are few players in the North American freight rail game, making competitive entries nearly impossible. The main players are Union Pacific (UNP), Canadian Pacific (CP), Burlington Northern (BNI), Genesee & Wyoming (GWR), Canadian National (CNI), CSX (CSX), Norfolk Southern (NSC). The current capacity expansion that is going on has helped boost shares of new IPO Freight Car America (RAIL), which produces rail cars that are lighter weight (aluminum instead of steel).

Oil and Gas: Many of us in the online community that have become aware of the peak oil issue early are probably more environmentally friendly than the general population, but we are still going to need new supplies of oil and gas to be developed to make it through the next few decades and hopefully have a softer landing and transition to whatever the next phase will be. I would steer clear of the big oil companies simply because they will be under the public spotlight and I can imagine Congress taking a share of their super-profits. I would look at smaller companies like Valero (VLO), Suncor Energy (SU) and some of the companies that Matt Simmons is involved with through his Investment Bank, like Superior Well (SWSI), Stolt Offshore (SOSA).

Many people have different opinions about the real estate market. I think there is a bubble in the suburban real estate market since they are based on cheap transportation costs, but I could see urban areas and areas near rail hubs become ever increasingly popular.

That's just my own suggestions. I am very open to suggestions if anyone has any others.

For full disclosure, I own GLD, PBW, RAIL, CSX and ESLR. I'm looking to buy into one of the rail companies and oil service companies once I sell more of my tech stocks.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

What's driving gas prices higher?

2005-08-12T12:43:00.000-04:00

I'm about to take off for the weekend to go camping. A little homework for everyone this weekend: Ask your friends, co-workers and relatives "what is driving gas prices higher?" Humor them as they talk about Bush, the Chinese, the war, the oil companies, etc.

Then mention these 3 facts:

1. No good information on oil exists inside of OPEC. There is no independently verified estimates of OPEC production rates or reserves. If we had a firm accounting of how much oil is really left and what fields are in decline then the markets might stabilize around a price that makes economic sense. Maybe mention Matt Simmons' book.

2. Add that OPEC has publicly stated that they cannot produce any more oil than current production rates and that non- OPEC producers have had a decline in production despite the high prices that should encourage more production. If price instead of geology drives supply then why hasn't this mechanism worked yet.

3. Tell them that we only have ourselves to blame for not using technology The average vehicle fuel efficiency has actually decreased since the the late 1980s and many of the new hybrids are being built for enhanced performance instead of fuel efficiency.

I'm interested in how these conversations go. Please post the results of your conversations in the comment section.

Going Camping

2005-08-11T14:47:00.000-04:00

I'm going to be camping in New Hampshire this weekend with a friend who is far more experienced than I am. I feel very prepared - I bought a new ergonomic backpack, hiking boots, fishing pole and net, lots of other little useful gadgets. One item in particular that I thought was interesting from a peak oil perspective was the Coleman solar heated shower unit. It sells at Kmart for $12.

All you need to do is fill it with 5 gallons of water, leave it in the sun for 3 hours and presto, you have hot water for showering! I think every urban dweller should get one of these and consider trying it out. Then if your hot water goes out, you know what to do! I'm hoping to learn other little tricks that will help us urban folk survive some of the coming energy issues.

I'm hoping to convince a few people to write some guest posts on peak oil or related NYC issues while I am away. I may write something from the road, but I'm guessing my blackberry should be out of range.

We are on track to surpass 2,000 hits on the website since launch less than a month ago. Special thanks to www.peakoil.com, www.wealthdaily.com, www.thoildrum.blogspot.com, http://nyc.indymedia.org, http://www.energybulletin.net, and many others for refering folks to this website.

Until then, stay cool and stay informed.

Car-Free Central Park?

2005-08-10T14:06:00.000-04:00

Transportation Alternatives is sponsoring a petition to make Central Park Car-Free. As I witnessed at the NYC Parks Mayoral Forum, two candidates pledged that they would make Central Park Car-Free. Now it is time to have your voice heard on this issue.

If you agree with this Statement, please sign the petition:
Central Park, our nation's foremost urban park, was created as a refuge from the surrounding city. The presence of automobile traffic on Central Park's loop drive is undermining the park's status as a refuge and creating a grave safety hazard for recreational users. For these reasons, I support the elimination of all regular automotive traffic from the loop drive and the return of the drive to recreational use only.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Is OPEC Irrelevant?

2005-08-10T12:51:00.000-04:00

As the price of oil continues to surge up and up to over $64/barrel, I caught a whiff of Phase I of the Peak Oil future from the NY Times review of the oil market:

OPEC has increased its supplies to 30.4 million barrels a day, raising output by 300,000 barrels a day over the last two weeks, in a bid to cool prices, according to the organization's president, Sheik Ahmad Fahad al-Sabah. But analysts dismiss OPEC's power to influence markets. With little production left untapped outside of Saudi Arabia, there is nothing the cartel can do to rein in prices. "OPEC? They are irrelevant," said Lawrence J. Goldstein, the president of the PIRA Energy Group, an oil consultancy in New York. "It's only when you hold off supplies than you become influential." He added, "Today, all the events are leaning in the same direction: Up."

So they realize that everyone, including OPEC, is producing flat out and they don't think we have hit a peak? The next question is: what if OPEC decided to hold back production? Answer: Economic chaos.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Interview With Matthew Simmons

2005-08-09T22:09:00.000-04:00

I'm almost finished with Matthew Simmons' Twilight in the Desert. Then I see this interview with him by Jim Puplava on Financial Sense that basically provides a nice background to the issues he raises in the book.

Simmons makes some of the strongest statements about the timing of the coming crunch in supply:

In 1990 the United States was still producing 7.3 million bpd of crude oil, today it’s 5.1; the 7.3 was after a drop over the previous 5 years of 1.6 million bpd; our refineries only needed to run at 13 ½ million bpd; and we only needed to import 5.8 million bpd of crude oil imports to balance our system. Today we have to run our refineries at 100% or we have major product shocks; today, we have to import 10-11 million bpd, or we lose crude oil stocks; we have to basically create almost 3 million bpd of finished product imports; we have to run the system on a 24-7, all Summer long. And we still liquidate stocks.

So we have actually now created a pending domestic embargo, and we’re going to be lucky to get through the Summer without some periodic shortages. We probably will, but the odds are probably as high we will have some shortages, and then if we get through the Summer we have a fabulous respite from Labor Day to Thanksgiving, until we hunker to try to figure out how the world gets through the Winter of 2005 and 2006 because oil demand globally could easily go to 86-88 million bpd during the Winter, and that could easily exceed supply by 2-5 million bpd.

And this is just discussing the refinery issue, but still you can't just put crude oil into the gas tank, can you? My feeling is that this will mostly affect extremely isolated areas that are far from refineries. Maybe skip Hawaii in your winter vacation plans...and get some warm sweaters now while they're cheap.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Voice Your Support for Green Buildings Bill

2005-08-09T21:05:00.000-04:00

Please take a minute to help the NRDC (Natural Resource Defense Council) push for green buildings in NYC.

Here is the background they sent me:

Poor indoor air quality, inadequate ventilation and toxic chemicals from paint, carpet and other materials make too many buildings unhealthy places to live, work and go to school. In addition, commercial and residential buildings consume almost 70 percent of the electricity produced in the United States, making them responsible for huge amounts of air and water pollution.

The good news is that the New York City Council has introduced a "Green Buildings" bill that would require most new and substantially renovated city buildings (including $5 billion in new schools) to be built in the healthiest and most environmentally sound manner possible. Green buildings (which cost almost nothing more to construct than regular buildings) have better indoor air quality than regular buildings, and typically use carpets and paints that release fewer toxic gases. New Yorkers who would benefit from more green buildings include students, teachers and other city workers, along with members of building trades. The bill also would require many city building projects to use at least 20-25 percent less energy and 30 percent less water, not only saving millions of dollars a year in operating costs, but also reducing smog and other disease-causing air pollution produced by local power plants.

Another provision in the bill would encourage green buildings to use sustainable wood certified by the Forest Stewardship Council. One hundred percent of New York's state-owned forests are certified by the council, so the requirement would help protect the state's jobs as well as its forests. But the timber industry opposes the proposed certification system, and is trying to either kill the bill or to replace the wood certification standard with its own weaker system.

The city council is expected to vote on the Green Buildings bill on Wednesday, August 17th.

-------

I urge you to sign their letter to Mayor Bloomberg and Speaker Miller!

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Reminder: NYC Meet-Up Tomorrow

2005-08-09T13:30:00.000-04:00

NYC Peak Oil Meetup Group has an event tomorrow!

Here are the details:

What: NYC Peak Oil August Meetup
When: Wednesday, August 10 at 7:00PM
Where: Wai Cafe
6th avenue between 16th and 17th
New York NY 10001

See who's coming or make an RSVP, click here.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

"What is Peak Oil?" (Part 2)

2005-08-08T10:13:00.000-04:00

Last week, I wrote a short post as a primer for people new to the concept of Peak Oil. I really encourage anyone new to the subject to read some of the links at the bottom of that post because they are quite compelling reads. As my second post on this series I want to focus a little more on timing since most people understand that oil is non-renewable and that "one day" we will "run out". Peak Oil is more of a series of events that in hindsight will represent the period of time when the world's increasing demand for oil cannot be met by increasing supply as it has been for the last 150 years of industrial development. Saudi Arabia has managed the oil markets as the swing supplier ever since the US hit its own peak production in 1970.

Back in the Spring as oil prices were in the $50 range, Bush met with Prince Abdullah (now King Abdullah) and basically got a firm "No" that they couldn't increase production to cool off prices. As Matthew Simmons has clearly laid out in his book Twilight in the Desert, Saudi Arabia has probably been operating at full capacity for the last few years and has no additional capacity to expand production. Without a swing producer and no production slack within OPEC or outside of OPEC, supply is now limited by geology, not economics or politics. That ends the first half of the oil age. What follows is my hypothesis of how the post-peak may play out:

Phase I: Oil Prices Increase to Curb Demand Growth
The recent increases in the price of oil from $20 to $60 in 6 years may be the first phase of this process where supply cannot increase as fast as demand at a particular price. Thus the market price for oil is limiting demand growth rate so that it better matches supply. In a simple way, oil is now being bid up by many people who would like to have it, but some who can afford it and others who will not be able to afford it at a given price. Witness the impact of $60+ oil on the developing world (in particular Southeast Asia) versus the Developed World and you can see who is winning this bidding war and who is limiting their demand growth. But this phase just slows the growth in the increase of oil consumption, so economic growth simply slows down as inflation starts to creep up, producing economic instability in many parts of the world. Prices may have to reach over $100/barrel to actually decrease demand. At this point, unless whole societies are transformed to rely on much less oil, prices will continue to increase steadily.

Phase II: Supply Shrinks and Oil Markets Close
Eventually supply will reach a point where the decline rates in the large super-giants that have been overworked, will not be made up for by the ability to increase production in newer fields. If this happens quickly (say a 5-10% yearly decline in supply), this will have a severe worldwide economic impact causing such rampant inflation in the cost of basic goods that many standards of living worldwide will fall dramatically. Some currencies will become so devalued that they may not be able to be exchanged for goods on the international market. As a result, the oil trade may collapse completely on the basis of money for oil. In its place would be a sort of barter system of food or other commodities or manufactured goods for oil. Order may breakdown in some developing countries as economies collapse due to lack of fuel.

By then it will be apparrent to all that oil is a very precious strategic commodity that needs to be secured by military means. China may embark on military operations in Central Asia to get "their share of the pie". Other countries may follow suit and many petty resource wars may occur at a regional level in Africa and Latin America. If there is a major conventional war between the major military powers (US, China, Russia) and some of the oil exporting countries (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria) then even more energy will be wasted securing the remaining oil resources. Even without major wars, I believe the world will revert to a neo-mercantile system of economic/military blocs, which has been the norm of human history except for the post WWII era fueled by cheap oil.

Phase III: From Global to Local
The end of the global oil market will be the end of global trade. Each economic/military bloc will have to become economically self-sufficient. Transportation of people and goods within these blocs will be expensive as oil and other quality fuels will be extremely scarce. Each local area will need to meet its own needs for survival of its citizens. Food production (dependent on petroleum based fertilizers) and logistics may not be able to meet the demands of the 6 billion people that had previously supported by the enormously cheap energy over the last 150 years. Famine and disease may create a Malthusian solution to population overshoot. We will have to live within the means that we can self-produce in a sustainable manner.

This is the nightmare scenario and I haven't even discussed the interaction of climate change and soil erosion. It may happen in the next 5 years, it may not happen for 10-20 years. It can be avoided or greatly mitigated if urgent action is taken at all levels of society. All the warning signs are going off right now.

Ultimately I do believe that local areas will have to become more self sufficient as we transition from an easily extracted energy source like oil to whatever combination of alternatives that will be of much lower quality and not as easily extracted or produced. That is why I have focused the attention of this blog to preparing NYC for peak oil.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Estimating NYC's Gas Bill

2005-08-07T07:17:00.000-04:00

(Map - Population Density)

I found some interesting car statistics on the NY DMV website on the number of registered passenger vehicles by county. Here's what we have for NYC in 2003:

Total Cars By Borough
Queens 639,849
Brooklyn 362,289
Staten Island 236,989
Manhattan 215,521
Bronx 215,300
NYC Total 1,669,948

I was surprised that Queens had so many more cars than Brooklyn, but I wasn't surprised to see my home borough of Staten Island above Manhattan and the Bronx despite having less than 1/3 their population.. Looking at this on a per capita basis, you can see which boroughs are more dense urban areas with very good mass transit access, versus less dense (in some parts suburban) areas with less mass transit access:

Per Capita Cars By Borough
Staten Island 0.512
Queens 0.286
Bronx 0.158
Brooklyn 0.146
Manhattan 0.138
NYC Average 0.206

This shows that Staten Island and Queens, the least densely populated areas of the city are the most reliant on cars for transportation in the city. I'll look for the numbers later, but I'm guessing that Long Island, Westchester, Connecticut and Northern NJ have even higher rates of cars per capita than Staten Island.

I couldn't find any numbers on how many miles the average NYC car drives in a given year, but let us assume that each of these cars travels 5,000 miles (conservative) and gets 15 mpg (also conservative considering city driving!). That's 333.33 gallons of gas a year for each of the city's 1.67 million cars, or 556.6 million gallons of gas collectively. At $1.50/gallon gas prices, the city's collective gas bill is $835m. Assuming that most of the demand is inelastic due to lack of transportation alternatives, at $2.50 the gas bill goes to $1.4 Billion, at $4/gallon the bill would be $2.23 Billion.

Each incremental dollar that is spent on gas comes at the expense of money that could be spent in the local economy. The city's transportation goal should be to reduce the overall dependence on the car for everyday transportation and reduce our dependence on oil products to fuel those cars.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Green Power

Short Comment to DOT Commissioner

2005-08-06T22:23:00.000-04:00

In looking on the Department of Transportation (DOT) website on alternative fuel programs, I was somewhat heartened to see oil depletion as a reason, but as I read further it became increasingly obvious that they have little sense of urgency around the issue. Here is the part about oil depletion:

Running Out of Oil
Transportation is the main reason that the U.S. currently depends so heavily on crude oil. Most of this oil is imported from foreign countries and the major source of foreign crude oil is the Persian Gulf (this region provides one-fourth of the world’s current consumption of oil and nearly two-thirds of the world’s oil reserves). Due to supply depletion and distribution instability, reliance on this fossil fuel must end. Oil is a finite resource, which means that its supply is limited and cannot be reproduced. It took millions of years for these oil reserves to accumulate and we have used them up in less than two hundred years! It is estimated that the current known reserves of oil on Earth will only be able to supply total world demand for the next 40 years. When these reserves are completely exhausted we will have to use alternative fuel sources. In the short-term future, there are alternative reserves available. Southwestern Russia, Eastern Canada and other countries have short-term (up to 30 years world supply) oil reserves. However, for the long-term, it is important to start planning as to what we will do when these finite supplies are exhausted.

This is the type of simplistic analysis of the oil depletion issue that has caused a relative degree of complacency and incremental approaches that will not make much of a dent in the short term.

The DOT has a comment area to the Commissioner, Iris Weinshall. I sent this short comment to her (only 150 words allowed):

Dear Commissioner Weinshall
I appreciate the numerous efforts you have made to extend alternative fuel vehicles in NYC. However this program needs to be greatly accelerated. On the DOT website it says that we have 30-40 years before oil supply cannot meet demand. However according to many oil experts, including Matthew Simmons, author of "Twilight in the Desert" and Paul Roberts "The End of Oil" we probably have less then five years before oil peaks. At this point, supply will continuously decline and prices will skyrocket. What is NYC's plan for $100/barrel oil? $200/barrel oil? How would NYC ration gasoline or home heating oil? Action is required at all levels of government to address this issue. I urge you to learn about this issue and take urgent action to make NYC less dependent on oil products.

Please send a copy of this or write your own email to Commissioner Weinshall and educate her about peak oil.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Fuel Economy Standards

2005-08-06T08:47:00.000-04:00

Transporation is by far the largest consumer of oil and one of the reasons that we have not been able to reduce our demand for oil is the lack of progress in building more fuel efficient cars.

The EPA recently released statistics on the average fuel economy of different types of vehicles. As you can see, there was a lot of progress made in the late 1970s and early 1980s in getting more miles to the gallon for both trucks and cars. And the greater proportion of vehicles then were cars instead of trucks. Then the government allowed the auto industry to classify the SUVs as light trucks and in the 1990s, there was not only a leveling off of fuel economy for each vehicle type, but also the mix of trucks as a proportion of all vehicles increased dramatically.

And now even the hybrids are getting in on the boom in light trucks and higher performance (less efficient) cars as we read from this NY Times Article. We should squander hybrid technology to continue to produce large inefficient vehicles that are primarily used for single occupant transportation.

What can NYC do about this?

Making the taxi fleet more fuel efficient by accelerating the introduction of hybrids that are more fuel efficient
Creating more rail links, making the city less dependent on trucks to transport food and goods into the city
Congestion price traffic below 60th Street in Manhattan or toll the East River bridges.

Just implementing these three measures would reduce the amount gas consumed by the city dramatically. In addition they would greatly ease traffic in the city which will reduce the amount of idling and increase fuel economy for the remaining cars, not to mention reducing the amount of pollution. These are relatively painless measures that could greatly improve quality of life for the average New Yorker.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, sustainable development

Open Letter to Senator Schumer

2005-08-04T08:07:00.000-04:00

Ianqui from The Oil Drum asked me to post this letter that she is sending to US Senator Chuck Schumer. You will see lots of politicians pandering to their gas-guzzling constituency as oil prices climb. What we need to do is show them that these quick fixes are really just like giving an addict one last cheap hit before prices go sky-high.

-----

Dear Senator Schumer,
I am a Manhattan resident who proudly voted for you in the 2004 election. Overall, I have been pleased with your efforts in the Senate, and I commend you for your service. Today I am writing in regard to your amendment S.AMDT.805 to the recently passed energy bill H.R. 6. I realize that the amendment was ultimately tabled. However, I believe that your position is misguided, and I discourage you from pursuing such legislation in the future.

The amendment stated that opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) would allow the government to "circumvent the efforts of OPEC to reap windfall profits." However, available research suggests that current crude oil prices are not skyrocketing because OPEC is trying to make a profit, but rather because worldwide demand is increasing rapidly. As you know, the demand for oil in China grew by 15% in 2004 alone. The United States consumes approximately 26% of the world's energy resources, using over 20 million barrels a day, and our demand shows no sign of abating. In fact, prominent oil experts such as Matthew Simmons and T. Boone Pickens have argued that prices are not going to decrease any time soon. According to a recent CNN article (6/27/05): "Pickens said a shortage of oil is the main reason behind the price increase and didn't see how the world could produce more than the current 84 to 85 million barrels a day that currently comes out of the ground."

According to the Department of Energy, as of August 3, 2005, there were 283.3 million barrels of sweet crude and 414.9 million of sour crude in the SPR. Presumably, if the SPR were opened to decrease prices at the pumps, only the sweet crude would be tapped into for expediency. However, even if only 5 million barrels a day were released into the oil delivery system, the sweet crude reserve would last at most 10 weeks. This may lower gas prices for a brief period, but imagine how your constituents will feel when the relief is over and oil is back to $60+/barrel. Perhaps more importantly, if the SPR were depleted, it would have to be refilled. Certainly neither the government nor the taxpayers will be happy about refilling the reserves when oil is at $60, $70, even $80/barrel.

The SPR is an emergency reserve to be used only in times of extreme crisis, such as war or natural disaster. By depleting it simply to pander to your constituents, you would potentially leave the US vulnerable should we need petroleum in a time of emergency. In addition to the ever-present threat of a terrorist attack on oil pipelines in the US and Middle East, frequent hurricanes pose a serious danger to our oil infrastructure on the Gulf Coast. This kind of disruption of delivery would make prices much higher than the $2.45 that we're seeing at gas stations today, and the SPR should be left intact for such a situation.

If your goal is to lower energy costs for the American public, you would be better served by encouraging smart energy policy, such as improved CAFE standards and increased funding for alternative energy sources. I am pleased that you have introduced legislation on these issues in the past, and I hope that you will continue to be vocal about them in the future. Such measures would go a long way toward reducing overall US oil consumption. As your colleague Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) has demonstrated to the Congress, the rate of depletion of known oil fields is increasing faster than new sources of oil are being found. The United States would benefit from conservation measures that will help ease our dependence on oil. Surely we will thank you when oil prices reach $100/barrel, which many experts believe could happen even before your Senate term is up.

Sincerely,
Ianqui Doodle

--------------

Please take a moment to share your thoughts (or share some of Ianqui's thoughts mixed with your own) on the subject with Sen. Schumer at that link or a Senator in your local state. You can contact information for other Senators at www.senate.gov

Thanks to Ianqui for working on local issues with us and we completely understand the little bit of sucking up in the first two paragraphs.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Rail Linkages

2005-08-03T20:19:00.000-04:00

In a last minute provision of the recently passed Transportation Bill, the Port Authority of NY & NJ received a $100 million appropriation to build a rail tunnel from Bayonne, NJ to Bayridge, NY (Brooklyn). According to a NY Times article by their transportation columnist Sewell Chan, this was a surprise to the Port Authority which had shelved plans for the tunnel. In response to the $100 million grant, he gets this quote from the authority's executive director, Kenneth J. Ringler Jr. "For us to say that we're committed at this point in time and can commit any funds to it would be premature."

This is an extremely important capital project that will keep over 1 million trucks off the road each year and reduce NY's dependence on gas guzzling trucks which according to Move NY deliver over 90% of the food and goods to NYC since we lack good rail access for freight trains. This is one of the reasons why basic goods cost more in NYC than in other parts of the country. As oil prices continue to increase, New Yorkers will be forced to continue to pay more and more unless we can replace much of that transportation to frieght rail.

I spoke to the Director of Move NY & NJ this evening and she was very excited about the $100 million and pointed me to their fact sheet on the benefits of the tunnel. The environmental assessment estimated that the two lane tunnel would reduce the miles driven by delivery and frieght trucks by 64 million. Let's assume that the average truck gets 8 miles to the gallon (generous in the city!). That means this tunnel could save 8 million gallons of gas every year. And since trucks cause a lot more road damage than passenger cars, this could save roughly $3.7 billion in road repairs.

In the peak oil world, rail transport of food and goods will be highly valued over truck transportation. Basically, this Tunnel will allow more goods to move by rail rather than by truck, and offers a safer, more efficient, sustainable way to move goods into and out of the City. For more information on how to support this endeavor, go the the MoveNY action page.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, rail, brooklyn, new jersey, trucks

Peak Oil NYC Meet-up Aug 10

2005-08-03T15:07:00.000-04:00

I tried my best to give a concise primer on what I think peak oil is and the implications for the near future for NYC. At the end of that post you can find some great sites that go into far more detail.

Even better than reading about it is the ability to hear this from someone live and interact with them so you can understand why there really is no magic solution to the peak oil problem. Next Wednesday is the next time that the Peak Oil NYC meet-up will occur. I urge all interested people in the NYC Tri-State area to plug into this Meet-Up group as they are the nucleus of what will probably become a much bigger social movement to alter our urban landscape in light of Peak Oil.

Date: Wednesday August 10th
Location: Wai Cafe - 6th avenue between 16th and 17th

They have posted a preliminary agenda and a committee break-out based on different interests - Peak Oil 101, Personal Preparations, Rural Reclamation and my personal favorite - NYC Sustainability. Those committees will probably start to meet separately from the main steering committee. They have a strong leader in Dan Miner and I expect that they will start to really ramp up awareness activities quickly.

Also, check-out the Gothamist review of the recent transportation bill and the crumbs that are given to car alternatives.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Exciting Week for Peak Oil NYC

2005-08-02T11:17:00.000-04:00

Very exciting week for Peak Oil NYC. We had over 150 hits for the last two days and we will likely reach 1,000 cumulative hits tomorrow since I started the blog on July 17th. Please continue to spread the word and contact me about local events, issues, campaigns, etc.

I've also been approached by several local organizations for feeds from this site that I will go into more detail later on.

Finally, Ianqui from The Oil Drum will be posting an open letter to Senator Schumer about the Strategic Oil Reserve. I consider this site to be a local action off-shoot of TOD so this is particularly pleasing to have them contribute to Peak Oil NYC in this way.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Wind Powered Liberty

2005-08-01T19:33:00.000-04:00

I've been reading about the potential for wind turbines to replace the need to rely completely on coal and gas fired electrical power plants for our electrical system. There are great strides being made, such that a modern wind turbine can generate enough electricity at peak times (usually at night) to power hundreds of homes. However, I'm starting to get really irritated at all the people complaining how tall they are and how they block their view of the natural landscape. The most irritating argument that get used is that the windmills are "taller than the Statue of Liberty". As if by couching the comparison to something as patriotic and wholesome as the Statue of Liberty, they can seem like they are defend their right to not have to live with windmills. How about "as tall as a smokestack" or "as tall as a pile of nuclear waste"? I could go on and on...

But this gave me another idea. What if we could power the Statue of Liberty with just Wind and Solar power? A Statue of Liberty that is energy independent and produces no harmful emissions into the atmosphere. This would be the best type of positive symbolism to assert America's path to energy independence.

So is this feasible? I think so, but I need a little help from some experts if someone is willing to help me out. Here's what I found on the amount of electricity that the Statue consumes:

(40) 250 watt Metal Halide lamps on the statue's body,
(16) 250 watt tungsten halogen incandescent lamps under the torch railing,
(42) 6 volt spotlights light the torch from below,
(4) 1000 watt MH floodlights mounted in the Statue's head.

So roughly 18,000 watts an hour or 18 Kilowatts/hour just for the lighting. This should not be hard to accomplish between a small wind turbine and perhaps a few solar panels. It could be an additional exhibit on the grounds of Liberty Island or possibly Liberty State Park. I bet the equipment could even be donated by some of the bigger players like GE, Kyocera or the energy (oil) companies trying to get into these areas. It would be the best PR money could ever buy for any company in the US.

So who's with me? Let's start spreading the word and writing to some folks and get this idea circulated and see what happens.

Updated: I tried emailing the Statue of Liberty Foundation, but my email bounced back. Strange. As a way of stating your opinion, please go to the National Park Service website for the SOL. http://www.nps.gov/stli/pphtml/contact.html . Another person who seems to really care about the Statue of Liberty is Anthony Weiner (running for Mayor) - http://www.anthonyweiner.com/contacts

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Time's Up for a Chat

2005-07-31T22:41:00.000-04:00

Every month on the last Friday evening a group of these people meet and decide to travel to together around the city. They slow down traffic wherever they go. They happen to ride bikes and belong to a group called Time's-Up. They also make a lot of noise because no one listens to their plight. Last Friday, 34 of them were arrested by the NYPD.

Imagine a group of people who go a little against the grain. They want to change the world one step at a time. They want to set a good example for sustainable transportation for others to follow. However, everyday they risk their life and limb navigating NYC's car clogged streets without the protection of even basic traffic safety lines. They have their property impounded because of inconsistent policies on parking. And they can't even voice their displeasure by riding together on New York's streets without getting tackled while in motion by the police.

I think it is high time that the city actually listened to some of the very reasonable demands from the cyclist community best summed up in these lists by Time's Up and Transportation Alternatives. They really aren't asking for a lot that would cost much money and would do much to improve the quality of life for the thousands of New Yorkers who bike to work, thus reducing traffic congestion and making room on mass transit for more riders.

Please write to your local city council person and Mayor Bloomberg to tell them to start a dialogue with the cyclist community now.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, Environment, NY State

What is "Peak Oil"?

2005-07-31T15:31:00.000-04:00

In the online community discussing the implications of peak oil, there is a growing recognition that awareness is not building fast enough to affect the types of societal changes that will be necessary to weather the coming storm. As I have learned the hard way, just saying "peak oil" is not enough.

So as a way of helping us sharpen our message to the uninitiated of what "peak oil" is, let me explain my point of view:

Peak Oil is not the end of oil but rather the end of cheap oil. Cheap oil is what fueled the economic and population booms of the 20th Century.

Oil has tripled in price in just the last 4 years (see chart - 2001: $20; Current: $60)

We've got about half the total supply of oil left that we inherited from millions of years, but it's going to be much harder (more energy spent expended) to extract that second half. The second half is also going to be a lot dirtier (high in sulphur) than the first half thus degrading the environment even more. We've got somewhere between 1-1.5 trillion barrels of oil left according to various sources. We are using almost 90 million barrels a day - over 20 million barrels a day in the United States alone.

In the back of everyone's minds they know that this is not sustainable, but most don't realize that we don't have 50-100 years to adapt. Most also don't realize that most of the world's oil was discovered before 1960 and that the US hit its peak in 1970. At most we have 10-20 years, even by optimistic goverment self-estimates of reserves from OPEC. The problem with the data is that we just don't know how much of the reserve information coming out of secretive places like Saudi Arabia and Iran to believe. Other oil industry experts that have been done extensive research on what the actual reserves might be like Mathew Simmons, Paul Roberts, Colin Campbell believe that we may reach the peak, if we aren't already at the cusp, much sooner - like within this decade. Even a major oil company, Chevron, has publically stated that they believe that we are close to a peak in oil production and need to urgently seek alternatives.

One estimate that predicts peak oil occuring soon

Without cheap oil a number of alternative energy sources will have to fill the gap and/or society must be radically re-organized to consume less oil. There is no single source of energy that can now or in the next 10 year replace oil, but rather a combination of wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, hydro, coal (preferably cleaner burning), bio-diesel and other sources that are under development or have not yet been imagined might be able to help minimize the impact of declining oil production when it occurs.

This is why urgent attention to this issue need to happen at all levels of our society, from investing more in alternative energy R&D, to re-organizing our cities and suburbs away from the automobile, to making each region more self-sufficient in meeting its own food, water and energy needs. If we wait until oil prices start to run away from our ability to sustain our society, there will be massive disruptions to our economy and potentially major dislocations of people in areas heavily dependant on cheap oil.

Personally, I think we will get through this, although not without a lot of hard work and some major negative consequences for those who are slow to adapt to the changing world.

I think New York City is probably as good a place as any to be during this and I'm not planning on heading for the hills anytime soon. The major risk I see is severe economic conditions causing urban unrest and break-downs in law and order. If things get really bad, my back-up plan is moving to Ithaca, NY where I lived during my four years at Cornell. But if we start planning now I think NYC can become a leading light in the country on how to re-organize our way of life more sustainably. Much work needs to be done and we don't know exactly when the storm will occur, but it's better to prepare as early as possible.

------

For more reading, from the less urgent to more urgent please read: Wikipedia, Energy Bulletin, Peakoil.com, Saintbryan, Kunstler, Matt Savinar, dieoff.com

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Book Review: Blackout by James Goodman

2005-07-29T15:59:00.000-04:00

NY Skyline August 14, 2003

On August 14th 2003, New York City lost power citywide for the first time since 1977. To everyone's collective surprise, nothing happened. No looting, rioting, arson or massive destruction of private property. While it was extremely inconvenient for commuters, many people simply used the sudden loss of power as an excuse to get to know their neighbors, have a cook-out and eat frozen food before it went bad.

On July 13th 1977, a different story emerged in some of the poorer neighborhoods of Northern Manhattan, Bushwick in Brooklyn and scattered areas of Queens and the Bronx. Under cover of the sudden darkness, hundreds of people took it upon themselves to "get what they wanted but couldn't afford" according to one looter. Why did the lights go out? Why did they loot? Why did they set buildings on fire? Why did they destroy their own neighborhoods? That's what James Goodman seeks to bring to light in his recent (2003) book about the 1977 blackout, now available in paperback.

He recounts the small private moments that individuals experienced, what motivated their actions, as well as the more well known images of Con Edison officials guessing at the causes and of looters carrying away all manner of merchandise as quickly as they could.

Bushwick, Brooklyn: July 13th, 2003

Stylistically he keeps true to the pace of events as people experienced them - both the good and the bad that happened on the streets of New York. He exposes all the different prejudices and stereotypes that played into the interpretation of the events of that night in a way that shows the emotions of the day in full light without validating any one. Some said that it represented the end of liberal idealism about welfare, other blamed the decline in morals, still others brought up the rampant unemployment and lingering racism that still limited the opportunies of those in the poorer areas of the city, etc, etc. Goodman hints that all of the various explainations had some truth in them but no one reason could explain the entire sequence of events.

My reading in light of peak oil brought several key factors that all contributed to the civil disorder:

The City's fiscal crisis that had resulted in cutbacks in social programs and policing
An economy that had stagnated as inflation grew dramatically
A high concentration of extreme poverty in some areas
A relatively weak mayor (Beame)
Existing high rates of property crimes and theft
A critical mass of inital unchecked looting that created an atmosphere that made ordinarily good law-abiding people feel that looting was acceptable. (important because in 2003 the police had 3 hours to prepare before sundown)

My basic conclusion was that the blackout was the lit match that in some neighborhoods ignited an inferno. Without the preconditions listed above, the spark has nothing to ignite. In 2003 most of these pre-conditions were not present, but after of few years of increasing oil prices we could start to see an erosion of the city's financial stability, which could lead to a situation in which urban chaos will again be a definite risk.

Also keep in mind that when Con Ed lost control of the system in 1977, they had the ability to produce 2 times as much electricity as was being consumed at the time. That was a system error. What will happen when we actually start to have regular brownouts and rolling blackouts to help reduce demand?

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State

Green Buildings in NYC

2005-07-28T19:16:00.000-04:00

Realistically, since most people in the Tri-State can use mass transit for most of their transportation, rising oil prices will most affect the NYC area first in home heating costs. Home heating oil prices have tripled since 1999 and so has natural gas. One advantage New Yorkers have is relatively smaller living spaces and more dense housing made of stone and brick which makes more efficient use of heating than old wooden houses in the suburbs.

For those who own their house are in a co-op or a condo situation, expect that you will probably have an increase in your common charges this winter as fuel prices increase. One suggestion to lock in prices now before they increase later this year is to sign yourself or suggest it to your building up for the NYPIRG Fuel Buyers Group.

For those of you renting, like me, we don't have to pay directly for fuel, but don't be surprised if the heat is a little lower this year than last.

As a result of this, I've been thinking about finding more efficient buildings in the city that will be able to weather the winter a little better than some of the older less efficient buildings. Two large scale residential buildings that are listed on the Green Home NYC site are The Helena and the Solaire which both offer a wide array of environmentally friendly amenities from energy efficient electrical systems (including solar panels) and appliances to high performance windows and water capture and reuse systems. I am investigating how much higher rents are at these places.

Another model that may be more realistic for the rest of low rise NYC is the building recently constructed at 228 East 3rd Street which has many of the same amenities in a smaller building which only has 22 apartments.

I will try to find some more of these and find out the relevant rents for them. I suspect that many New Yorkers would be willing to pay more in rent to live in a more eco-friendly building. Eventually as heating and electric prices rise, real estate companies may have wished they had started retrofitting some of their old buildings with these efficient systems.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Green Power

Blood, Sweat and Tears

2005-07-28T11:27:00.000-04:00

Our dependence on foreign imported oil since 1970 when the US hit its own peak production has resulted in the shedding of much blood in the Middle East, much sweat in trying to maintain the supply of oil and the tears of many people on both sides who have lost people in this struggle to keep oil prices as low as possible.

Bob Herbert writes a great column on the real neo-con agenda in Iraq while the main editorial page of the NYTimes laments the lack of imagination in the current joke of an energy bill that will likely be passed by Congress before the end of its current session.

And this could just be the beginning of a long stuggle that will go beyond Iraq. Think of how much energy and resources we could have poured into R&D, creating large scale wind and solar farms in some of the more desolate areas of the country. North Dakota could be the new Saudi Arabia. With solar, Arizona could generate the equivalent of the Hoover Dam. We have all the energy we need to accomplish this now and unless we start building for the post oil energy future, the death spiral will continue.

peak oil, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, Wind Power, Green Power

NYC: 13,000 Megawatts at 4-5pm July 27 2005

2005-07-27T21:25:00.000-04:00

Con Edision asked many neighborhood such as North Brooklyn and Harlem to reduce their electric consumption as today's heat pushed demand past the record set yesterday and for the first time exceeded the 13,000 Megawatt mark at 4pm and 5pm.

Many midtown companies were asked by Con Ed to reduce their electric consumption by raising their thermostats and turning off unnecessary equipment and lighting. We went half dark at my office around 2pm today.

Yesterday there were some temporary outages in Brooklyn, but nothing serious. However, the temperatures can still get higher which may test the limits of the overall system provoking some controlled brown-outs. The noise level about this is not very high right now, but if there were disruptions that lasted longer than a few hours, people may get angry.

Personally I'm going to double check my supply of batteries and flashlights. I'm on the third floor of my apartment building so I don't think the water pressure will be affected, but that remains to be seen. For those in high-rises, start stocking up just in case.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Con Ed Asks for Conservation

2005-07-27T11:32:00.000-04:00

Con Ed is requesting that New Yorkers conserve electricity during the recent heat wave as it set another record for electric usage. Even before we hit the peak in Oil and Natural Gas, we are having trouble maintaining the electrical system. This really highlights the need for more local micro-energy initiatives across the city and renewable supplies for the future, particularly wind and solar.

I'm enjoying my read of "Blackout" and should finish it sometime later this week. I will post a review then along with my comments on the implications for NYC in a peak oil world.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

NY Political Round-up

2005-07-27T08:51:00.000-04:00

The mayoral forum at NYC last night was focused on Parks and did touch on some issues related to the pedestrians & cyclists vs cars in parks. The attendees were Council Speaker Miller, Fmr. Bronx Borough President Ferrer, Manhattan Borough President Fields and Fmr. Councilman Ognibene, who was the only Republican in the debate. Mayor Bloomberg and Rep. Weiner were the big no-shows. I haven't seen much news coverage yet, even by the NY Times or NY1 so let me give you my perspective.

In general I thought Miller performed the best of the Democrats. He showed far more energy and charisma than the other candidates and I agreed with most of what he said. He also just seemed to have a better grasp of all the issues than the rest of the field. That said, he lacks the gravity of some of the older more experienced candidates. Fields came off as less park and bike friendly than I expected. She was the only candidate in the forum that actually is not for curtailing or suspending car usage of park roads, particularly during rush hour. Ferrer was stale and boring - tending to revert to politico-mumbo jumbo at the start of many of his answers. Ognibene had good moments, but failed to really impress me and convince me he's a real challenger to Bloomberg on the right. I heard very little than distinguished him from the Dems.

Overshadowing this in the news this morning is the announcement that Gov. Pataki will not be seeking a 4th term. This now looks like Spitzer will have an easy time next year. I'm going to start doing some homework on his environmental record and agenda.

In transit news, the 2nd Avenue Subway has been delayed yet again and the Taxi and Limousine Commission has approved the use of several different hybrid models for inclusion in the NYC taxi fleet as a test. The big problem until now seems to have been leg room. Personally I'd pay extra for a hybrid taxi. And I'd be cool if you could spot them from afar - maybe the hybrids could be painted green?

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, Environment, Energy, NY State

Mayoral Forum

2005-07-26T17:00:00.000-04:00

Off to the Mayoral Forum on parks. It should be interesting to see what if anything they say about cars in parks, traffic congestion in general and making NYC's parks cleaner, safer, nicer.

While the Democrats are trying to find their voice and select a candidate, our current Mayor seems to be lining up some big pockets to stay on the sidelines.

Currently I am completely undecided on the mayoral race.

NYC, New York City

NYC Blackout 1977 vs 2003

2005-07-25T20:08:00.000-04:00

Now that I'm finished with the epic Crime and Punishment, I picked up "Blackout" by James Goodman. It's about the 1977 blackout in NYC and all the various reactions across the city, from opportunistic looters to people who made great acts of kindness and generosity. Emergencies bring out the best and the worst in individuals, especially in the context of a city that prides itself on its anonymity. The picture above is from the 2003 blackout which was relatively calm and peaceful by comparison even though it occured over a much wider area.

I think these are fascinating case studies of what happens in crisis situations. The relative calm of the 2003 blackout was based on the premise that the power would be restored in a day or two. What if no one was confident that the lights would come back on? What if we had 2-3 hours a day where power would be shut down due to lack of fuel (gas, oil, coal transport?).

It makes me think of the classic Issac Asimov short story "Nightfall". That's the ultimate nightmare scenario, complete chaos and civil disorder. If you haven't read it, I recommend it.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, Energy, NY State

Better Mass Transit is the answer for all

2005-07-25T10:37:00.000-04:00

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

It is incumbent on all of us drivers and users of Mass Transit to have transit fully funded like other services. Congestion pricing and tolling the East River Bridges is politically unpopular but it is a major part of the solution. We need the commuter tax reinstated so that comuter-persons who earn a living here aren't unfairly subsidized by urban dwellers. The commuter tax should be dedicated solely to subsidizing Mass transit operations. We need BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) to operate within the 5 boros so commuters will be drawn out of their autos. It is working in LA (land of the automoblie) and around the world. For BRT to be a reality we also need the "political will" to implement and it requires only 3 things with not much infrastructure investment. You must get NYPD, NYC-DOT and the MTA in a locked room to agree to implement BRT and not just agree to another BRT study. What is needed is!

Real enforcement of Bus only lanes on major streets in NYC.
A transponder on the bus to safely change lights green in favor of the bus.
Pre-boarding Kiosks at heavy usage stops like 14 Street, 42 Street where passengers have already swiped their Metro-Cards and need only board the bus when it arrives.

We need a greener less fossil fuel system and how about a pilot all electric fleet on one line to begin the feasibility to convert eventually all electric city-wide. If we can fuel them with wind feeding the electric supply. We can do this with overhead Catenary wire system which could be bus or light rail with (no autos alowed) avenues. There are issues with siting bus garages in lower economic areas, where the diesel emissions cause a propensity to childhood asthma. Electric and CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) could reverse that negative health trend. Obviously electric power is preferred but CNG is better than diesel.

Please share your thoughts.

Sunday meters

2005-07-25T07:53:00.000-04:00

The mayor is coming under criticism for his policy of keeping the meters
running on Sundays. I heard on NPR this morning that 41 City Council members
want to have that repealed. The main argument seems to be that people in
church need to leave in the middle of service to plug the meter. I'm
sensitive to that concern, but that must be an extreme minority of folks.
Maybe each Church could give away stickers that exempt cars parked near that
church from meters. But this becomes a slippery slope...

The real problem with this is just that it encourages more driving, albeit
offpeak hours, but it does have an impact on mass transit ridership, which
means there are more excuses to cut weekend mass transit service.

NIMBY Now, Regret Later?

2005-07-24T17:27:00.000-04:00

From the NY Times today. Upstate, where there is lots of great land that is perfect for Wind Farms, different communities are making different choices about the placement of wind turbine farms. The different sides of this debate are not your classic industry vs. environmentalist or even Liberals vs. Conservatives clash that usually strike up about power generation. The lines in this battle to increase NY State's Green Power have a lot more to do with money and the view out of your window.

Gov. Pataki and many local government officials have joined forces with cash poor but land rich folks in favor of erecting wind farms while local residents who worry about noise and a disruption of the "natural beauty" that exists without wind farms. Tom Golisano, perennial gubernatorial candidate, has joined the protest against the wind farms.

This is the type of backward attitude of "Not In My Back Yard" NIMBY that people may live to regret in the coming years as energy production will be a very lucrative business for rural communities in the peak oil future. Obviously there needs to be a better job in selling the benefits economically to the local community and perhaps spreading the benefits around a little more.

Some good information about wind energy from the article: Each wind turbine costs $1.5-2 million dollars and can generate the electric for 1,000 homes.

While it will never replace all electrical needs due to the mismatch in peak demand and supply, it can help to reserve coal and gas for peak times and take care of the base demand during its peak generation times. Or they can be used to charge batteries or separate water into Hydrogen for car fuel. Or they could be co-located with solar panels that have a different peak time, thus together generating electricity at almost all times.

Personally if I lived in upstate, I'd love to see windmills and solar panels outside my window!

peak oil, NYC, New York City, alternative energy, Environment, Energy, NY State, Wind Power, Green Power

Energy Slaves

2005-07-23T16:14:00.000-04:00

I just finished Crime & Punishment yesterday, which I somehow managed to miss during high school literature classes. There are many great insights about the human condition, but one that struck me in relation to peak oil is:

"We've grown used to having everything ready-made, to walking on crutches, to having our food chewed for us. Then the great hour struck* and every man showed his true colors"
*Emancipation of the Serfs (1861)

Until relatively recently (200-300 years ago) society relied heavily on human labor (much of it forced labor). We don't think about it, but our everyday energy consumption relies on the equivalent of thousands of hours of human labor. Colin Campbell has a term for this: Energy Slaves.

Something to think about. How many energy slaves do you have?

peak oil

NY Century Bike Tour

2005-07-23T09:02:00.000-04:00

I just saw that the NY Century Bike Tour is going to be on September 11th. Whatever your point of view on what motivated a small group of well funded Islamic radical terrorists from Saudi Arabia, it is hard to ignore the role that our dependence on foreign oil played.

This is a great way to highlight the growing numbers of bikers in NYC who are making a difference in making NYC a less fossil fuel dependent and more environmentally friendly and sustainable place. You might also meet some nice people and lose a few pounds in the process.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Environment

Congestion Pricing Primer

2005-07-22T18:05:00.000-04:00

The best first step in creating a greener NYC and weaning the local area of their dependence on cars is to implement some type of congestion pricing for the East River bridges or creating some type of Central Business District (CBD) zone that would require an entrance fee, in particular one that would vary in price depending on the time of day.

In NYC, the most logical zone would be Manhattan south of 60th Street, since this would cover all 4 free East River bridges as well as people coming from the north of Manhattan where there are free bridges from the Bronx.

The most comprehensive and compelling analysis I could find was put together by Jeffery Zupan of the Regional Plan Association. He reviews 4 different options for congestion pricing and the impact it would have on the number of cars, trucks and other vehicles entering Manhattan as well as the increased mass transit ridership.

However, this is politically unpopular for politicians in the outer boroughs. We need to convince them that this is the right thing to do for the whole city.

From a peak oil perspective, this type of policy would help transition our economy so that when gas prices start to run away, we already have changed commuting habits in such a way that the impact will be less chaotic.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, alternative energy, Environment, Energy

Illusion of Safety Overtakes Motorists

2005-07-22T06:07:00.000-04:00

Ok, so the NYPD are starting to search bags in the subway system, thus providing the temporary illusion of increased security on mass transit. In general I don't have a real objection to this as a temporary measure to help people feel more secure. But the fact is that this is more psychological than a true security screening like we have in airports. Two paragraphs in the NYTimes piece linked to above that resonated with me were:

William W. Millar, president of the American Public Transportation Association, an industry group, said comprehensive coverage of any major urban transit system would be next to impossible. "If you were going to try to check a very high percentage at every station or on every train, it would be incredibly labor-intensive," he said.

Still, he said, the searches could deter would-be attackers and improve the public's confidence. "The public wants to feel safe, as well as be safe," he said. "So this has a benefit of perception."

Meanwhile motorists everywhere must be feeling pretty secure that they aren't a terrorist target, or at least if they are it is merely the work of local, homegrown road rage instead of some ideologically driven suicide bomber.

Here in NY, the everyday auto-terror continues in the nation's only city where drivers are a minority -- an average of 684 car crashes are recorded every day of every week of every year. Over 17,000 pedestrians or cyclists are struck and injured by automobiles every year in NYC, and cars killed 1,190 pedestrians and 121 bicyclists between 1995 and 2001.

And for those keeping score at home, last year in the US it was terrorists: 0, fatal car crashes 42,800.

peak oil, NYC, New York City, Manhattan, Mass Transit, Environment, Energy

Green A Block

2005-07-21T16:53:00.000-04:00

Good role models can really help inspire people to believe that good things are possible and even take action - despite all the negativity and complacency we see everyday. This is why we need to encourage all energy conservation projects now to build good role models for the future and use those lessons in greening the rest of the city eventually.

This is last minute notice about a community forum tonight of the Green A Block committee starting at 6pm going through 8:30pm at:
Village East Towers
Community Room
170 Ave C (near 10th St)

I would go, but I already have plans tonight so if anyone does go, I'd love to hear the outcome of the discussion and some of the ideas raised.

peak oil

Southeast Asia: Canary in the Peak Oil Mine

2005-07-20T23:22:00.000-04:00

The impact of peak oil will first be felt in countries less well off than the US and Europe. We need look no further than Indonesia, a member of OPEC, to see major problems starting to occur. The government has been subsizing gas and fuel prices to help insulate the economy from fluctuations over the last year, but now the government is facing a bill ($11 billion) greater than the budget costs for health and education simply to keep fuel cheap.

They should be afraid of ending the subsidy because the last time they did (picture from 2002) there were massive protests.

Thailand had to raise it's key interest rate recently because of inflation fears as gas and fuel prices rise as subsidies are cut and have even resorted to compulsory measures to control gas usage: The closure of petrol stations from 10 p. m. to 5 a. m. effective from 15 July. The government "hopes the measures will also instil in the public a sense of emergency over the need to conserve energy."

Malaysia may also cut its fuel subsidy soon

Southeast Asia is the canary in the mine for oil prices. Watch what happens there and learn.

peak oil

Record Electric Usage for Con Edison

2005-07-20T08:52:00.000-04:00

Due to the hot, humid weather in NYC this week, Consolidated Edison (Con Ed for short)reported record electric usage yesterday July 19th "at 3:00 p.m. this afternoon when 12,250 megawatts were provided, topping the prior record of 12,207 megawatts set on August 9, 2001."

On it's website, Con Ed reports that "electric usage has grown by nearly 20 percent during the past 10 years. And, as the economy continues to grow, there is every expectation that these trends will continue for the foreseeable future."

Well, we know that the future is uncertain with the coming peak in oil production in the not too distant future. There are many different ideas on what this might mean, but most would agree that as oil and natural gas prices get higher, we will probably lean more heavily on electricity to run everything including cars and dirty coal will be used to fire our increasing electric usage.

That's why we need to invest much more in reducing electricity demand and developing our green power, particularly wind and solar. I urge all New Yorkers to switch their electricity provider from the generic Con Ed service to their green power product, which costs just a little bit more but has some other incentives like a $25 refund after 3 months.

peak oil

Mayoral Forum on Parks

2005-07-19T22:52:00.000-04:00

The Parks #1 Campaign is having a mayoral forum next Tuesday starting at 6:30pm through 8:30pm at:
New York University
Jack H. Skirball Center for the Performing Arts
566 LaGuardia Place (and Washington Square South)

You can either go to the link above or call 212-838-9410 x 233.

Their goal is to have the city dedicate 1% of its budget to city parks. I support their goal because increasing green space in urban areas will be critical to building a more sustainable environment. No need to leave the city and burn fossil fuels if you have a great park nearby. But also this is also a great forum to discuss issues of the environment and reducing our dependence on cars. You can influence the debate by going to http://www.parks1.org/mayoralforum to make a reservation and submit your question.

Time's-Up is planning a bike rally to the event:
5:45 p.m. - Ride meets at Columbus Circle/West 59th Street
6:15 p.m. - Pick up more riders at Union Square Park South
6:45 p.m. - Arrive at forum @ NYU

peak oil

London Congestion Pricing

2005-07-19T12:44:00.000-04:00

Map of Areas Covered by Congestion Pricing and Signs Posted

Definitely something we need to start thinking about for Manhattan and other high density areas in the Tri-State Area. Note that the pricing only covers peak hours of congestion (7am-6:30pm). More on this later.
peak oil

Reactions to Peak Oil Email

2005-07-18T19:58:00.000-04:00

I would like to share the range of reactions to my letter to my friends and family about peak oil.

They went from dismissive / I know better:

You have it backwards.The way capitalism works is that oil hits $100 a barrel AND THEN we start reducing energy usage and looking for alternatives.
what about central Asia? Sounds like there might be more oil there than anyone previously thought.

To appreciative:

That's very interesting stuff. I remember an economics course that I took in college and the prof was always stressing the scarcity of oil (and of fresh drinking water) and how artificially low the US oil prices are. I'll continue to check the sites you mentioned. Thanks again!

To denial:

I'm really not at all worried. If gas gets too high I'll simply ride my bike more, walk whenever possible, loose weight and be happy I'm not working at a job which requires my using my car for transportation.
I don't even look anymore when I buy gas. Why get upset over something I have no control of.

To confusion:

Perhaps this peak is a temporary (although not final) one? Not questioning the general logic of your argument -- just the timing.

Interesting reactions. When I talk about this with people, they just say basically I'll worry about it when it starts to affect my life, which it isn't now. What a short term perspective! These are the same people that will feel free to be very angry about this when it does.

Sometimes I fear the boiling lobster effect where we don't even realize that something very bad is happening because it happens so slowly we barely recognize the day to day changes. The awareness side of the peak oil is going to take time, it's going to take some pain, and there will eventually have to be some major event (probably an actual shortage caused by a natural disaster or terrorist attack) that sparks public attention. That's unfortunately the way humans behave - complacency until panic.

peak oil

My Victory Garden

2005-07-18T14:19:00.000-04:00

This weekend I picked up a couple of herb plants - Rosemary and Basil - to form the first of my own little victory garden. When supplies of fruits and vegetables became rationed in WWII millions of people planted their own gardens to supplement their diet. These two plants will become the nucleus of my own little urban container spice garden.

On Sunday I had chicken with Rosemary and it was much better than the dry stuff out of a container.

Those of you in the suburbs with a little extra backyard might want to start planting tomatoes. For those of you stuck in the confines of the urban jungle, try to find a local community garden or at least go to one of the many farmer's markets to buy your produce from local and organic farmers.

peak oil

Investing in Mass Transit

2005-07-18T09:28:00.000-04:00

Two articles in the NY Times today underscoring the investments necessary to improve NYC mass transit infrastructure.

First, there is a new bond proposal for $2.9 billion dollars that will be on the November ballot. Of that dollar total "Half of the money, $1.45 billion, would go to the transportation authority for a variety of building projects and new equipment, including new subway cars and buses as well as trains for the authority's two commuter railroads." This will include the first section of the 2nd Avenue Subway line and a link between the LIRR and Grandcentral station as well as other capital equipment. The other half will go to highway and bridge improvements as well as "repairs to freight railroad lines". This seems like a good start in the right direction and something that peak oil folks should work to support to avoid the failure of a similar proposal in 2000.

Second, a team has been selected to build the new Moynihan station that will become the new home of NJ Transit just one street west of Penn station. This will help ease crowding and delays that currently exist as well as allow NJ Transit to expand service.

peak oil

Emailing from the 2nd Avenue Bus

2005-07-18T08:14:00.000-04:00

Ok, I'm doing this mostly for the coolness factor - I have a wireless email
device (Blackberry) and it appears as if I can update the blog from email.
So now I can post from anywhere!

Let me just say here now that I would bike to work if 2nd Aveune wasn't a
total death trap - cars flying in all directions, moving & delivery trucks
stopping short, minivans loading up kids (yes even in Manhattan). The buses
on the right side of the road make it nearly impossible for a biker to
operate in that lane and the left lane is pretty dangerous too, although
that's where the few, brave 2 wheelers seem to gravitate toward.

It's such a shame too, because my office is only 2 miles away from my
apartment. Then there are the storage parking, issues, etc. So even though I
live in a flat area where everything I need is only a few minutes by bike,
biking is really not too feasible.

But if you have the guts, here's a group that can help.

peak oil

Appeals Court Rejects CO2 Regulation by EPA

2005-07-17T22:55:00.000-04:00

In a long awaited decision, an Appeals Court ruled against a move by 12 states (including NY) to have CO2 regulated by the EPA under the Clean Air Act. (Hat tip Green Car Congress)

peak oil

Posters

2005-07-17T21:56:00.000-04:00

I just came across a great place to get PEAK OIL awareness posters. http://www.eclipsenow.or

I recommend putting these up in places that already have a space dedicated to poster space instead of just illegally plastering them everywhere.

peak oil

Review of "Oil Factor"

2005-07-17T21:10:00.000-04:00

Directly after the Mets game today I went to see the 5pm showing of "Oil Factor: Behind the War on Terror" playing at the Anthology Film Archives on East 2nd Street and 2nd Aveune.

The documentary basically re-summarizes recent history since 9/11 in light of the peak oil phenomenon, arguing that the US is really trying to establish military hegemony in the last oil producing region after Europe, Russia and much of the non-Opec countries "run out". This last point was probably their misinterpretation of the difference between oil production peaking and actually running out. This is an important distinction, because actually oil will still be produced for at least a few more decades by even the most apocalyptic predictions.

While I thought this movie did a good job of displaying the suffering and plight of the Iraqis and did underscore how important was to the US in terms of sustaining its global hegemony, another person could have easily walked out of that film thinking it's really not bad having access to Iraqi oil and maybe the war was actually worth it. Of course, I was really outraged at the suffering that has occurred simply to maintain a foothold in an oil rich country in the heart of the middle east. But from a geo-political strategic self interest perspective, I could see how someone else (think O'Reilly and his followers) with a different perspective could think that having our military there is not half bad in the context of peak oil.

This is the danger of focusing too much on the negatives and not offering a more viable solution to continued oil dependence. This is one of the reasons I have started this blog, is to hopefully start painting a viable picture of the solution to this issue other than the die off scenarios.

I think NYC can do quite well in a moderate peak oil scenario, and I think we can lead the way in helping other communities navigate the impact of peak oil as it unfolds.

peak oil

Mass Transit to Shea

2005-07-17T19:55:00.000-04:00

As New Yorkers, Mass transit is and will become increasingly important to the sustainable economic future of the city. Improving the quality of that mass transit system is critical to weaning people of cars and taxis. The more people that start using mass transit now, the easier it will be to justify expansion of the system to more areas.

Today I took a fairly circuitous route to Shea Stadium to see the Mets beat Atlanta 8-1 in the first victory I saw this year. Let's Go Mets!

I live near the 86th Street subway station and usually take a little known shortcut using the E express train from 53rd Street & Lex to Broadway in Queens and then switch to the 7 train, thus saving many local stops on the 7 train. Anyway, today there were many frustrated people trying to figure out their route since the local 6 train was running on the express track. This affected me too since the connection to the E train relies on the local 6 train. Instead I took the express to Grand Central and doubled back to the connection to the E train and continued on my way.

There are a few lessons the MTA could learn from this story:

First, communication is the key to customer satisfaction - the frustration people felt was more because they didn't know what alternatives existed. The signs that were posted were inadequate, and the poor token booth guy was overwhelmed with people asking questions.

Second, "an educated consumer is your best customer" doesn't just apply to retail! I breezed through the chaos because I knew the drill and could easily navigate my way without much time lost.

Third, people really like the option of choosing between local and express trains. I avoided the 7 train because for some reason they don't run express trains to Shea Stadium on the weekends. So instead, i have to find a loophole in the express E train even though it means 2 transfers instead of one. This should be a no-brainer to simply run express trains to large events like a baseball game during times before and after the game.

peak oil

Sample Letter about Peak Oil

2005-07-17T10:37:00.000-04:00

Dear Friends and Family

I have been reading extensively about the possibility that we may soon reach (if we haven't already reached) the peak in global oil production (where demand can not satisfy supply and price increases as a result). Oil prices have risen steadily over the last 4 years from the $20-30 range in 2001 to poking above $60 for the first time ever recently.

While oil prices seem to have stabilized in the high $50 range for now, the stuff I've been reading suggests that later this summer while vacation season is still in swing and simultaneously refineries have to start building inventory for the winter home heating fuels, things will start to get a little tighter and could easily drive prices into the $70-80 range. This could cause further speculation as outlined in a recent Goldman Sachs report that predicted oil might reach a price of over $100 in the not too distant future.

Normally the oil producing countries could simply increase production as they have in the past, but two factors have combined to make this a near impossibility.

First, OPEC has publicly stated that they can not increase production at this time and most non-OPEC countries have already peaked. For instance a few weeks ago the UK reported that their North Sea production had declined by 15% versus this time last year.

Second, refining capacity is in the high 90% range, so even if there were a significant increases in crude oil supply, it is not clear if any more could be made useful faster than it currently is.

The implications for significantly higher oil prices will affect everything from gas prices, home heating costs, food costs, and could cause the type of stagflation that occurred during the 1970s, but this time there is no political solution. The problem will only continue to get worse until more alternatives start to get to more of a critical mass, but that is not expected for at least 2 decades.

Please start preparing for this depending on how these changes will affect you.

Reduce your energy usage overall - heating/cooling, transportation, etc.
Invest in raising the efficiency of your home and appliances.
Keep up with the latest news on the subject.
Talk about this with your friends and neighbors.
Make this an issue that has to be addressed by public officials

-----------------

In this blog, I will specifically address how peak oil will affect the NYC area, focusing mostly on Manhattan but also including the other four boroughs, Westchester, Northern Jersey and Southern Connecticut.

peak oil